Best Time To Go FHA for your mortgage needs

A Few Reasons Why Now May Be The Least Expensive And Easiest Time To "Go FHA"

Shopping for low mortgage rates is a game of luck.

Some days, mortgage rates are favorable. Other days, they're not. And while you can sometimes make an educated guess about where rates might be headed, you're not always going to guess right.

Even the experts get it wrong more often than they'd like.

But some parts of the rate shopping process can be predicted and one of them is the future of mortgage guidelines.

In general, the more often homeowners default on their respective mortgages, the harder it is for future mortgage applicants to be approved.

This is why "now" may be the best time to apply for a FHA mortgage. Defaults are climbing, suggesting that FHA underwriting guidelines are about to tighten.

Indeed, the FHA has implemented two major changes since last summer:

1. The minimum downpayment requirement was raised by a half-percent to 3.5%
2. Cash out refinances are now limited to 85 percent, down from 95 percent.

These changes create barriers to entry for potential FHA borrowers, improving the overall quality of the FHA loan pool.

For a taxpayer-funded agency like FHA, loan performance is an important goal. Therefore, as the number of defaults grows, expect FHA guideline to get tighter.

The problem is, though, we can't predict just where the FHA will tighten. Maybe the FHA raises its minimum FICO score requirement, or maybe it gets tough on seller-paid closing costs. A hike in loan fees isn't out of the question, either -- that's the path Fannie Mae took, after all.

Whatever the FHA does, fewer people will qualify for FHA mortgages once it's done. So, if you're planning to buy a home and your downpayment is limited, or your credit scores are suspect, or there's some other "red flag" in your profile, consider moving up your timeframe to act.

Mortgage rates may rise or mortgage rates may fall, but neither is going to matter if you can't get qualified for a home loan. And, for FHA mortgage applicants, tougher mortgage guidelines are only a matter of time.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)

The Federal Reserve talk in Plain English

Explaining What The Federal Reserve Did In Plain English (April 29 2009 Edition)

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged today within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent. The Fed also reiterated its plan to support the mortgage market to the tune of $1.5 trillion.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that the economy may still be contracting, but that it's not happening with the same speed as in prior months. Household spending is stabilizing and financial markets are "easing".

Nevertheless, threats to the recovery are everywhere with the following items on the Fed's short list:

• The growing ranks of unemployed workers
• The reduction of housing wealth nationally
• Reduced inventories and investment from business

Furthermore, the FOMC fingered today's inflation levels as too low to support economic growth. This justifies the Fed's plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent "for an extended period".

For home buyers and refinancing homeowners, today's press release was not favorable.

After the Fed's announcement, stock markets rallied on the idea that the worst of the economy really is over and that led to a broad bond market sell-off. Mortgage rates spiked in response, adding as much as 0.125 percent, in some cases.

The FOMC's next scheduled meeting is June 23-24, 2009.

How Swine Flu Helps Mortgage Rates

Monday, mortgage markets improved with news of new Swine Flu cases.

It's a classic example of Safe Haven buying and today's rate shoppers will see the benefits.

Mortgage rates improved about 0.125 percent Monday.

It's not an official term, but "Safe Haven buying" describes the trading patterns in which large numbers of investors move money away from risky investments and toward safer ones. As a general rule in Safe Haven buying, stocks sell off and bonds make gains, including mortgage-backed bonds.



Fears that a global Swine Flu outbreak would slow the global recovery is a major reason why mortgage rates improved Monday.

Dumping risk is a common reaction on Wall Street when unexpected events occur. Because the future is uncertain, traders prefer to play it safe. Hence the jargon-like term, "Safe Haven buying".

If nothing else, Monday's mortgage rate action reminds us that the biggest influences on the market are often not the events we can prepare for. It's the events we never saw coming.

This morning, with known Swine Flu cases spreading to Asia and a Phase 4 Alert from the World Health Organization, Safe Haven buying is continuing. However, with the Federal Reserve meeting today and tomorrow, markets could be ripe for a correction.

(Image courtesy: Niman and Google Maps)

Are mortgage rates going up?

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : April 27, 2009

Last week, like the 3 weeks prior, mortgage markets were all over the place from day-to-day.

But, also like the 3 weeks prior, when the week ended Friday, rates were right back where they started from Monday.

For the 4th straight week, mortgage rates started and ended the week essentially unchanged.

Whether or not this is good news depends on your perspective.

For active home buyers who have yet to find the "right home", long-term flatness like this is terrific. While interest rates stay even, buyer purchasing power holds flat and pre-approval letters stay valid.

For buyers under contract or homeowners looking to refinance, though, the market's pattern is a little more rough. Although rates are holding steady week-to-week, the day-to-day action is quite different. Bond markets are volatile and rate swings of a quarter-percent in a day have been common.

How good of a rate you get depends on day on which you shop. This complicates the process of "locking a rate" and makes it very hard for people trying to time a market bottom.

This week, though, the market may finally make a run and break its range.

Aside from it being an unusually data-heavy week, the Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss monetary policy. The data combined with the Fedspeak may push the markets one way or the other towards economic optimism or pessimism for the latter half of 2009.

Lately, it's been a combination of the two -- a "cautious optimism" -- and that's a big reason why mortgage rates have held in a tight range for so long.

Understand, though, that when mortgage rates finally do move, they're going to move in a big way. So, if you're among the crowd looking for lower rates, the best possible outcomes you can hope for this week are:

Weak consumer confidence data (Tuesday, Friday)
Weak consumer spending data (Thursday)
Falling "cost of living" calculations (Thursday)
Fed concerns about deflation and/or recession (Wednesday)
Any of these four events would likely temper hope for a quick economic revival, sending mortgage rates lower. On the other hand, if confidence or spending is strong, or the Fed has no regard for deflation or recession, expect mortgage rates to rise.

Why Sellers Should Cheer Them the lower Housing starts

Why Sellers Should Cheer Them the lower Housing starts

Housing Starts add to inventory levels With respect to housing data, news is rarely positive or negative on a universal level. There's always two perspectives to consider, after all.

1. The home buyer's perspective
2. The home seller's perspective

Usually, when data is beneficial to one group, it's less beneficial to the other. This is true for rising home prices, average days on market and so forth.

Today, the group that gets the most benefit from data is the home seller group.

Published Thursday, a government report showed that Housing Starts fell 11 percent nationwide in March and also fell short of analyst expectations. A "Housing Start" is a new housing unit on which construction has started.

The press is calling this a stumbling block for the economy, but that's not exactly true.

Fewer Housing Starts last month means that fewer new homes will come on the market later this year. This is not necessarily bad news. Especially if you're planning to sell your home in the latter half of the year. With fewer homes for sale, the supply-and-demand curve should shift in favor of home sellers. This helps stabilize home prices at a time when they might otherwise be prone to fall.

If it's true that stable housing markets are key in an economic recovery, then fewer Housing Starts is actually a push in the right direction.

But there's more to the story (as always).

As footnoted in the Commerce Department's report, a statistical disclaimer states that the Housing Starts data's Margin of Error was so high that the report's conclusion is just a guess. Technically, the entire report is invalid anyway

So, the government won't issue its final March 2009 Housing Starts data for months, but if the initial figures stick, home sellers may be in position to command higher sale prices later this year to the detriment of home buyers. It's basic economics.

And from a home seller's perspective, that news is good.

Predicting The Federal Reserve

Predicting The Federal Reserve's Next Move : April 2009 Edition

The Fed Fund Futures predict that the Fed will leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at its April 2009 meeting

The Federal Reserve meets next week for a policy-setting meeting.

It's one of 8 scheduled Fed meetings this year in which the Federal Open Market Committee votes on whether to raise, lower, or leave unchanged the Fed Funds Rate.

Based on data compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Wall Street's expectations of the Fed Funds Rate post-meeting are as follows:

* 97 percent probability that the Fed Funds Rate holds at 0.000 to 0.250%
* 3 percent probability that the Fed Funds Rate is raised to 0.750%.

There is no expectation for a 0.500% Fed Funds Rate.

The Fed Funds Rate influences the economy by changing borrowing costs for banks, businesses, and consumers. When the Fed Funds Rate is lowered, "cheaper money" is meant to speed the economy forward. When the Fed Funds Rate is raised, by contrast, costly borrowing tends to slow the economy down.

Changes to the Fed Funds Rate do not directly correlate to changes in mortgage rates.

Because Wall Street is nearly unanimous in its Fed Funds Rate prediction, though, expect the market's FOMC focus to be on what the Fed says rather than what it does.

If Ben Bernanke & Co. express concerns about long-term inflation and the need to contain growth, mortgage rates will rise in response. On the other hand, if the Fed says that growth is expected to be within a tolerable range, mortgage rates should idle.

In other words, there's little benefit in waiting for the Fed's meeting to make your "Float or Lock" mortgage rate decision. In a worst-case scenario, mortgage rates rise. In a best-case scenario, they likely stay the same.

The Fed's two-day meeting adjourns Tuesday, April 29 at 2:15 PM ET.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : April 20, 2009

Consumer Sentiment is rising -- a potentially bad sign for mortgage rates For the third week in a row, mortgage markets improved early in the week, only to give back the gains before Friday's close.

Mortgage rates ended last week exactly where they started. However, if you locked your mortgage rate Tuesday, you got a rate decidedly lower than someone who waited until Friday.

Last week, one of the biggest mortgage rate drivers was a series of surprisingly strong corporate earning reports, including those from financial firms Goldman Sachs and Citigroup.

The positive reports pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its 6th consecutive weekly gain. This is the market's longest winning streak in two years and its best 6-week rally since 1938, in percentage terms.

In part, the rally is boosting Consumer Sentiment, too. According to a survey, Americans are feeling better about the economy than at any time since last September's meltdown.

But while stock market rallies and rising consumer sentiment can be good for our investment portfolios, they're not always welcome when we're shopping for mortgage rates. This is because the bond market is considered a "safe place" for money, an alternative for when stock markets are risky.

When market risk is reduced like, say, following 6 consecutive weeks of gains, the safe haven of bonds loses some of its importance to investors.

As a result, bonds start to sell-off so more cash is available to invest in equities. Bond prices suffer when this happens and, because mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage bonds, mortgage rates suffer, too.

This week, there are a number of large corporations reporting first quarter earnings including banking behemoths Bank of America and US Bank, plus companies like IBM, AT&T and McDonald's. Strong earnings may -- again -- lead mortgage rates higher.

If you're among the thousands of Americans still waiting for mortgage rates to "bottom out", consider that the bottom may have already been touched.

It's tough to follow mortgage rates in real-time so, at least in the short-term, you can find some clues in the stock market. If stock markets are rising this week, it's likely mortgage rates are, too.

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Top 10 list from Home Building industry

Great Stuff! Thanks Dale!

The Top 10 encouraging statements

regarding the home building industry today

#10

Thanks to depreciation in housing prices and record low mortgage rates, housing at this point is more affordable than it has been in at least a generation.

Frank Anton – Hanley Wood CEO, April 2009

#9

The latest encouraging signs came Wednesday, with the government reporting that orders for machinery and equipment posted surprising gains last month and that more buyers, lured by low prices, returned to the housing market.

Annya Shin and Renae Merle, LA Times, March 2009

#8

Since we began tracking the data for the major MSA’s in 1981, there has never been a better time to buy a home.

John Burns – John Burns Real Estate Consulting, March 2009

#7

There are some pieces of information that reconfirm that we are very near the bottom.

David Crowe – NAHB Chief Economist, March 2009

#6

The upside is inventory slipped 31 percent year to year even with meager sales because construction is almost nonexistent. Smaller inventory is necessary for a correction.

Eugene James – Metrostudy Atlanta Division Director, February 2009

#5

The number of newly issued residential building permits, ticked up 3% in February from January. Government data showed that sales of new single-family homes increased 4.7%, the first increase in the market in seven months.

Annya Shin and Renae Merle, LA Times, March 2009

#4

I think we’re at a bottom now. A housing market turnaround should begin in June or July, led by existing homes because prices have plummeted. The new-home recovery will follow.

Steve Palm – President of SmartNumbers (Marietta) February 2009

#3

. . . the signs that we’re reaching the bottom are clearly there. Prices for homes have gotten into a realm that is starting to make sense. You are starting to see the beginning of an increase in sales. You’re starting to see the basic signs that assets are getting back to a level that makes sense. When you add this all up, we’re moving through this.

Christopher Thornberg – UCLA’s Anderson Forecast economist, March 2009

#2

Mortgage rates continue to fall, reaching their lowest level in nearly 40 years. The Fed’s overnight lending target rate remains at a range of 0.00% to 0.25%, which is the lowest level on record . . .

John Burns – John Burns Real Estate Consulting, March 2009

#1

You Can Do It !

Dale Peek, Architect – Peek Design Group, March 2009

OK folks, it is going to take all of us encouraging one another if we are going to make an impact. I have talked with many of you and know you have some great ideas and insightful things to say – so don’t be shy - make a comment right here so we all can share in your positivity. This blog provides you a tremendous platform from which to share your wonderful wit and wisdom with hundreds of others who you would otherwise never be able to reach – so wow us with your good sense and your success stories so we can all be encouraged and enlightened and entertained (e3).

Dale Peek

President – Peek Design Group

8 Things You Absolutely Shouldn't Do Now That Your Mortgage Application Is In-Process

8 Things You Absolutely Shouldn't Do Now That Your Mortgage Application Is In-Process

With mortgage rates are hovering near all-time lows, lots of Americans are taking advantage of refinance and home buying opportunities.

The downside of today's unexpectedly-low rates, though, is that mortgage lenders are ill-equipped for the rush of new business.

As a result, the process of underwriting and approving new mortgage applications is taking some conforming lenders as long as 2 months to complete.

This is double the time needed as recently as six months ago.

Because there may be 60 days between the application date and the closing date, it's important for applicants to remember that mortgage approvals can be revoked at any time prior to funding.

As mortgage applicants, there are many events that are out of our control -- job security and health matters, for example. But there are also events that are within our control.

Knowing that mortgage approvals can be fragile, here are 8 things you should absolutely not do while your home loan is in process. It may be the difference between being approved by the bank, and being turned down.

1. Don't buy a new car or trade-up to a bigger lease.
2. Don't quit your job to change industries
3. Don't switch from a salaried job to a heavily-commissioned job
4. Don't transfer large sums of money between bank accounts
5. Don't forget to pay your bills -- even the ones in dispute
6. Don't open new credit cards -- even if you're getting 20% off
7. Don't accept a cash gift without filing the proper "gift" paperwork
8. Don't make random, undocumented deposits into your bank account

Now, avoiding these items may not be practical for everyone. For example, if your car lease is expiring and you need a larger vehicle, it doesn't mean you can't buy the car -- just check with your loan officer first to be sure the new payments won't "break" your approval.

The same goes for accepting cash gifts from parents. There's a right way and a wrong way to accept gifts and doing it the wrong way may prevent you from using the gift as a source of downpayment.

Mortgage lending is full of "gotchas" and with underwriting times stretching to 60 days, it's a lot more likely that a mortgage applicant will trip into one. Following these 8 rules, though, is a good start.

Watch out for Mortgage Rates when Gas Prices Rise

Watch Out For Mortgage Rates When Gas Prices Rise

Don't look now but oil prices are climbing.

This should worry today's home buyers and would-be refinancers because some of the same forces that helped to push crude past $50 for the first time in 4 months also cause mortgage rates to rise.

March 18, the Federal Reserve committed an additional $1.15 trillion to support the economy.

Since the announcement, investors have questioned whether the Fed is purposefully spurring inflation. The Fed's total debt purchases now total $1.75 trillion.

And to finance its purchases, the Federal Reserve is printing new money, devaluing the U.S. dollar along the way. This then leads to inflation which, all things equal, causes oil prices to rise, gas prices to rise, and mortgage rates to go with them.

As we've seen the last few summers, oil prices and mortgages seem to touch their yearly high points while the weather is warmest.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal)

WHEN IT COMES TO SELLING YOUR HOME, MAKE SURE THE PRICE IS RIGHT

Looking Back And Looking Ahead : May 27, 2008

The market optimism that had pushed mortgage rates lower since late-March reversed last week on ever-rising oil prices and a bleak outlook from the Federal Reserve.

When gas prices reached $3.93 Friday, it re-ignited inflation concerns and inflation, you'll remember, is the enemy of mortgage rates.

As expected, mortgage rates spiked into Friday's market close. 

Markets were closed for Memorial Day but re-open this morning with traders feeling apprehensive about mortgage market investments.  There are many reasons to park money elsewhere, after all.

1. The U.S. dollar is trolling near all-time lows against the Euro
2. Oil markets are returning incredibly high rates of return
3. Big banks are still writing off large mortgage losses

All three of these reasons reduce demand for mortgage bonds and --  because mortgage rates move in the opposite direction of mortgage bond prices -- mortgage rates rise.

This week, a few inflation-related data points will cross the wires including the Fed's preferred inflation gauge -- PCE. 

PCE stands for Personal Consumption Expenditures and it measures the cost of living for ordinary people.  It's the Fed's preferred measurement because PCE accounts for Americans buying more chicken when meat gets expensive, or buying more fruits when vegetables get expensive, et cetera.

PCE is different from the Consumer Price Index because CPI is a "fixed" basket of products.

If PCE is running high, expect the exodus from mortgage bonds to continue and rates to run higher.  If PCE is flat or lower, mortgage rates should fall.

(Image courtesy: Gasbuddy.com)

Smart Money and Renters

Smart Money Magazine Says Renters Have Lame Excuses

It's not often that a mainstream media publication taunts renters into buying homes, but that's exactly what Smart Money does in its latest issue.

The Smart Money Web site "lead-in" reads 5 (Lame) Excuses for Not Buying a Home.  Wow That's a forceful title!

The the article raises very good counter-points to the more popular reasons why renters avoid homeownership.

Owning a home is a serious responsibility and does require commitment.  However, a renter should not feel bullied or hurried into buying because for as much as personal economics are at play, personal emotions are at play, too.  Both deserve respect.

So, renters: Put your blinders on and give the Smart Money article a read.  

Mortgages and Oil

How We Know That Prime Rate Will Likely Rise Before It Falls

Three weeks after adjourning, Federal Reserve officials release detailed minutes of their most recent meeting. 

The April 30, 2008 minutes were released Wednesday and it affirmed traders' beliefs that the Federal Reserve will not be in a hurry to lower the Fed Funds Rate again. 

This is bad news for two groups of people whose borrowing costs are tied to Prime Rate, the interest rate that is 3 percentage points higher than the Fed Funds Rate:

1. Homeowners with home equity lines of credit
2. Americans with credit card debt

Because Prime Rate moves in lock-step with the Fed Funds Rate, it, too, has fallen by 3.25 percent since September and now rests at 5.000 percent.

With the release of the April FOMC Minutes, though, it appears that Prime Rate is more likely to increase than to decrease moving forward.

If your home equity line of credit offers a "convert-to-fixed-rate" option, now may be a good time to consider switching over.  Be sure to talk with your loan officer first, though -- he/she may have alternate options for you.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)

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