Atlanta Mortgage Rates this week and you

MARKET COMMENT

Mortgage bond prices fell last week pushing mortgage interest rates higher. The bond market was choppy most of the week as thin trading conditions magnified movements. We started the week with rates heading higher Monday. Fortunately there was a bit of a rally Tuesday and Wednesday as the Treasury auctions were decent. Those gains were short-lived as the weekly jobless claims figure wasn’t as bad as expected. The bond market closed early Thursday and was closed the entire day Friday. For the week interest rates rose by about 1/4 of a discount point.
ISM Index data will set the tone for trading this week. The employment report will be the most important release but it doesn’t arrive until Friday. This will be the first full week of trading this year. It will be interesting to see how traders react to the recent spike in rates following the various shortened trading sessions.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Construction Spending	Monday, Jan. 4, 10:00 am, et	Down 0.5%	Low importance. An indication of economic strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
ISM Index	Monday, Jan. 4, 10:00 am, et	54.0	Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Factory Orders	Tuesday, Jan. 5, 10:00 am, et	Up 0.5%	Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
ADP Employment	Wednesday, Jan. 6, 8:30 am, et	-75k	Important. A measure of employment. A larger than expected decrease in jobs may bring lower rates.
Employment	Friday, Jan. 8, 8:30 am, et	Unemp. @ 10%, Payrolls unchanged	Very important. An increase in unemployment or a large decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates.

THE YEAR AHEAD

This year begins in a similar fashion to last year. Last year at this time 30 year fixed rate mortgage interest rates were historically low. Most pundits predicted little or no opportunities for additional refinancing. Mortgage interest rates did spike higher from time to time throughout the year but overall the Fed did an excellent job of keeping rates in check. Unfortunately now the Fed's $1.25 trillion mortgage backed securities (MBS) purchasing program is nearing the end and the future remains uncertain. The good news is that 30 year fixed rate mortgages remain low but once again future predictions are all over the board. 
What will occur in the future, economic recovery or additional weakness will continue to be debated. There is no certainty in predictions. Data can be used to support both sides of the debate. What we can be certain of is the fact that until the economy gains some stability, mortgage interest rates are likely to be volatile. Historically, mortgage interest rates seem to improve slowly. In contrast, when rates increase, it is often fast and furious. One negative day often erases a week of positive improvements.
It is possible for mortgage interest rates to push lower considering the Fed still has a few hundred billion dollars of MBS purchasing left. However, we are in unprecedented times. The Fed has clearly signaled they want rates to remain low but also want to exit the market. The Fed isn't the only player in the mortgage bond market and there are many others buying and selling the securities. Remember that the Fed does not directly dictate that mortgage interest rates will be at a certain percentage. Rates are determined by the supply and demand for mortgage-backed securities.
The Fed kept rates in check for 2009. The big unknown is how they will exit the market without causing major disturbances this year. While there have been signs of improvement in the housing sector, the last thing we need is higher rates. Without the Fed buying mortgage bonds rates may very well head considerably higher. Now is a great time to take advantage of favorable rates.

FDIC ORDERS ON BANKS FROM NOVEMBER

Press Releases

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FDIC Makes Public November Enforcement Actions; No Administrative Hearings are Scheduled


The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) today released a list of orders of administrative enforcement actions taken against banks and individuals in November. No administrative hearings are scheduled.
The FDIC processed a total of 51 matters in November. These included 34 cease and desist consent orders; nine civil money penalties; three prompt corrective action directives; three Section 19 orders; one order terminating an order to cease and desist; and one notice of charges and of hearing.
 To view individual orders below, click the link for the PDF next to the order. To view all orders online, visit the FDIC's Web page at http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/enforcement/index.html. A list of orders made public today follows.

Best Time To Go FHA for your mortgage needs

A Few Reasons Why Now May Be The Least Expensive And Easiest Time To "Go FHA"

Shopping for low mortgage rates is a game of luck.

Some days, mortgage rates are favorable. Other days, they're not. And while you can sometimes make an educated guess about where rates might be headed, you're not always going to guess right.

Even the experts get it wrong more often than they'd like.

But some parts of the rate shopping process can be predicted and one of them is the future of mortgage guidelines.

In general, the more often homeowners default on their respective mortgages, the harder it is for future mortgage applicants to be approved.

This is why "now" may be the best time to apply for a FHA mortgage. Defaults are climbing, suggesting that FHA underwriting guidelines are about to tighten.

Indeed, the FHA has implemented two major changes since last summer:

1. The minimum downpayment requirement was raised by a half-percent to 3.5%
2. Cash out refinances are now limited to 85 percent, down from 95 percent.

These changes create barriers to entry for potential FHA borrowers, improving the overall quality of the FHA loan pool.

For a taxpayer-funded agency like FHA, loan performance is an important goal. Therefore, as the number of defaults grows, expect FHA guideline to get tighter.

The problem is, though, we can't predict just where the FHA will tighten. Maybe the FHA raises its minimum FICO score requirement, or maybe it gets tough on seller-paid closing costs. A hike in loan fees isn't out of the question, either -- that's the path Fannie Mae took, after all.

Whatever the FHA does, fewer people will qualify for FHA mortgages once it's done. So, if you're planning to buy a home and your downpayment is limited, or your credit scores are suspect, or there's some other "red flag" in your profile, consider moving up your timeframe to act.

Mortgage rates may rise or mortgage rates may fall, but neither is going to matter if you can't get qualified for a home loan. And, for FHA mortgage applicants, tougher mortgage guidelines are only a matter of time.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)