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4.08.2010

Latest From : Atlanta RE 5 by 5

Don't Leave Tax Credits On The Table (And How To Get Them Back If You Already Filed)

Posted: 08 Apr 2010 07:45 AM PDT

Taxes are due April 15 and if you're among the millions of Americans who wait until the last week to file, here's a video interview that could help you reduce your federal tax liability.

Originally broadcast by NBC's The Today Show, the 4-minute piece reviews various tax credits and deductions, plus some recent tax law changes. A few of the topics covered include:

Tax filers receiving larger "personal exemptions" in 2009 versus 2008
Unemployment income recipients being required pay taxes beyond the first $2,400 received
The "first time" home buyer credit being extended to non-first time home buyers for up to $6,500

The interview also talks about how taking a parent, child or other family member into your home may change your tax filing status and reduce your tax liability.

Even if you've filed your taxes already, watch the video above. You may find that you missed a potential deduction. If that's the case, consider filing an amended return with the IRS to recapture the credits you left on the table. Most times, the benefits of re-filing will outweigh the costs of doing it.

Be sure to talk with your tax professional for personal tax advice.

4.07.2010

The March Fed Minutes Explains Why Home Sales Weren't Worse This Winter

Posted: 07 Apr 2010 07:45 AM PDT

Mortgage markets improved yesterday after the Federal Reserve released its March 16, 2010 meeting minutes. It's good news for home buyers and rate shoppers -- rates could have just as easily gone the other way.
The Fed Minutes is a detailed recap of the debate and discussion that shapes the nation's monetary policy. The notes are dense; it takes 3 weeks to compile them for publication.
As compared to the more well-known, post-meeting press release, the Fed Minutes are extremely lengthy. For example:

March 16 press release : 451 words
March 16 meeting minutes : 6,152 words

If the press release is the executive summary, the Fed Minutes are the novel.
The extra words matter.The minutes recount what the Fed did, how the Fed did it, and what the Fed plans to do next. And, in the minutes, Wall Street looks for clues.
This is why the report is important to every rate shopper in the country.
When the Federal Reserve publishes the minutes from its meetings, it leave clues about the groups next policy-making steps. For example, in March's Fed Minutes, it's clear that the Fed's concern about inflation is hugely diminished and that's a major plus for the mortgage bond market.
Inflation causes mortgage rates in Atlanta and in Georgia to rise. The absence of inflation, therefore, helps them to fall. This improves home affordability, among other things.
Similarly, the Fed Minutes note that real estate sales may have been worse throughout the winter months if not for low mortgage rates and the sense among Americans that home prices were troughing. We may infer, therefore, that rising rates may suppress home sales later this year.
Markets are always looking for clues from inside the Fed and the last meeting's minute signal that the economy is on its way up. If you're looking for a bargain in the housing market, your window to act may be closing. So I invite your to visit the leading Georgia mortgage leader Capital City Mortgage Investments, Inc. at www.ATLrates.com

4.06.2010

Latest From : Atlanta RE 5 by 5

Pending Home Sales Soar In February, As Expected. Buyers Are Everywhere.

Posted: 06 Apr 2010 07:45 AM PDT

Pending Home Sales (August 2008-Fed 2010) As expected, the Pending Home Sales shot higher in February, boosted by the federal home buyer tax credit's April 30 deadline.

Versus the month prior, February's index rose 8 percent but remains well off the highs set last October.

For today's home buyers and seller, the Pending Home Sales Index is an important measurement. This is because a "pending home" is a property that is under contract to sell, but not yet closed.

According to the National Association of Realtors®, 80% of homes under contract close within 60 days, historically. Therefore, a higher Pending Sales figure in February projects that April's Existing Home Sales will be higher, too.

If you're a home buyer today, no doubt you've noticed the extra market activity.

On right-priced homes, multiple offer situations are more common; sales prices are settling closer to listing price; Days on market is falling. These are the signs of a buyer-heavy market. It drives home supplies down and home prices up.

It's a good time to be a seller, in other words. Especially as buyer activity looks poised to peak.

When the home buyer credit faced its last expiration in November 2009, we saw a pattern of buyers rushing to beat the deadline. There's no reason to expect that won't happen again. And as it does, Pending Home Sales should continue to climb. Average home sale prices should rise.

Home buyers may find it smart to go under contract sooner rather than later. Pending Home Sales is a warning shot. Higher home sales figures are ahead.

4.05.2010

Latest From : Atlanta RE 5 by 5

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : April 5, 2010

Posted: 05 Apr 2010 07:45 AM PDT

Non-Farm Payrolls Apr 2008-Mar 2010 Mortgage markets performed terribly last week as losses piled up day by day. It marked the second straight week of sell-offs.

Pricing was influenced on several fronts including better-than-expected economic data, the end of the Federal Reserve's mortgage buyback program, and a short trading week.

Mortgage rates rose to their highest levels since late-December last week.

The data from most anticipated story from last week -- the jobs report -- included a few good-for-the-economy surprises.

Although payrolls fell 22,000 short of expectations in March, they were boosted by +62,000 in net revisions from January and February
"Temporary Employment" -- a leading jobs indicator -- is up 313,000 in the last 6 months
The average work-week and factory overtime both rose in March -- a sign that hiring should increase soon

In general, what's good for the economy is bad for mortgage rates and that's one reason why rates spiked Friday. Employment is a keystone in the economic recovery and mortgage markets reacted accordingly.

This week is short on data but there's a lot to move the markets.

For one, the Federal Reserve has called an emergency meeting to review its Discount Rate policy. The meeting is called for today, Monday April 5, at 11:30 AM ET. It's unknown exactly what the meeting will cover, but if new monetary policy is made, expect that mortgage rates will be influenced.

Also worth watching this week are the technical trading patterns present in the mortgage-backed bond market.

Unlike fundamental trading in which markets move on data and projections, technical trading is how markets move based on patterns over time. The two methods co-exist on Wall Street but, occasionally, technical forces can be pronounced, leading markets to lurch up or down. This week may be one of those times.

Mortgage pricing is far below its 200-day moving average, resting slightly north of a key support level. If pricing worsens this week and bonds fall below the support level, mortgage rates could easily tack on quarter-percents or more per day until the market refinds its balance.

Overall, it's a week you don't want your rate to be floating. Sure, rates could improve, but there's a lot more room for them to worsen.

4.01.2010

Latest From : Atlanta RE 5 by 5

The Federal Home Buyer Tax Credit Enters Its Home Stretch -- 30 Days Left

Posted: 01 Apr 2010 07:45 AM PDT

There's just 30 days remaining to use the federal home buyer tax credit.

The credit ranges up to $8,000 for first-time homebuyers, and up to $6,500 for existing homeworkers who have lived in their main home for 5 of the last 8 years.

Claiming the federal tax credit is a two-step process. First, you must be under contract for a new home on or before April 30, 2010. Then, you must close on said home on or before June 30, 2010.

There are no exceptions on the dates.

Timeline aside, homebuyers and the subject property must also meet minimum requirements in order to be tax credit-eligible:

You can't purchase the home from a parent, spouse, or child
You can't purchase the home from an entity in which the seller is a majority owner
You can't acquire the home by gift or inheritance
Each buyer in the purchase must meet eligibility requirements
The home sale price may not exceed $800,000
Buyers may not earn more than $125,000 as single-filers; $225,000 as joint-filers

The complete eligibility checklist is published on the IRS website. Or, if you find IRS-speak too difficult, make a phone call to your accountant. Asking a tax professional's advice on a tax-related matter is never a time-waster.

And lastly, don't forget that if you're claiming to federal tax credit for home buyers, it's a tax credit and not a deduction. This means that a tax filer who qualifies for the full $8,000 and for whom the "normal" federal tax liability is $8,000, will owe no federal taxes in 2010 to the IRS.

If you're an active buyer , mark your calendar for April 30, 2010. It's 30 days from now and, as the date gets closer, buyer traffic will increase. The likely result is higher home prices and more difficult negotiations. The best time to act may be today.

3.31.2010

When to lock your loan?

Wednesday's bond market has opened in positive territory after this morning's economic news didn't surprise anyone. The stock markets are showing early losses with the Dow down 37 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is currently up 9/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

The Commerce Department gave us today's only relevant economic data when they released February's Factory Orders late this morning. They announced an increase in new orders of 0.6%, but also revised January's orders higher than previously announced. So, this data can be considered fairly neutral or slightly favorably to bonds and mortgage rates.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release their manufacturing index late Thursday morning. This index gives us an important measurement of manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives and is one of the more important of this week's dat a. A reading above 50 means more surveyed executives felt business improved during the month than those who said it had worsened. This month's report is expected to show a reading of 57.0, which would be a small increase from February's reading of 56.5. This means that analysts think business sentiment remained fairly close to last month's level.

Also being posted tomorrow are weekly unemployment figures from last week. The Labor Department will release the number of new claims filed last week for unemployment benefits, giving us a small reading of labor market strength or weakness. They are expected to announce that 440,000 new claims were filed. This would be a slight decline from the previous week, but unless we see a much larger or small total, this data likely will have little impact on the bond market or mortgage rates. That is because it tracks only a single week's worth of claims and we have monthly results being posted Friday morning.

We also can't forget about Friday's unique circumstances. It is Good Friday and recognized as a holiday, so the stock markets will be closed. However, the bond market will be open until noon ET Friday before closing for the holiday. In addition, we have a highly significant piece of data being posted at 8:30 AM ET Friday when the Labor Department will release March's Employment report. This makes it very likely that we will see plenty of movement in bonds and mortgage rates before the bond market closes at noon. It also means that we can expect to see more volatility Monday morning when the stock markets have an opportunity to react to Friday's data, which also will influence bond trading. It will be interesting to see what transpires those days, especially if Friday's report reveals surprising results.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock at www.atlrates.com

Latest From : Atlanta RE 5 by 5

Case-Shiller Shows Home Price Improvement In A Majority Of Cities Nationwide

Posted: 31 Mar 2010 07:45 AM PDT

Case-Shiller Monthly Change Dec 2009 - Jan 2010

Standard & Poors released its Case-Shiller Index Wednesday. The report shows that, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, between December and January, home prices rose in more than half of the index's tracked markets.

The strength of this month's Case-Shiller report, however, should be put in context.

For one, the report is on a 2-month delay; it's showing data from January, before the start of the Spring Buying Season and before the rush to beat the tax credit. Anecdotally, buyer interest has been strong since, leading to the types of multiple offer situations that drive home prices northward.

In other words, home values may be even higher than what's reflected in the January Case-Shiller data above.

Furthermore, the Case-Shiller Index measures home values in just 20 cities nationwide and they're not even the 20 biggest cities. Houston, Philadelphia, San Antonio and San Jose are specifically excluded from the report and each ranks among the country's 10 most populous areas.

Despite its flaws, though, the Case-Shiller Index remains important. Much like the government's Home Price Index, the private-sector report helps to finger broad housing trends and housing is still considered a keystone in the U.S. economic recovery.

Even if it's two months slow.

3.30.2010

Latest From : Atlanta RE 5 by 5

Get Your FHA Mortgage Application Started -- Fees Increase 1/2 Percent Starting Monday, April 5, 2010

Posted: 30 Mar 2010 07:45 AM PDT

FHA closing costs increase by 1/2 percent April 5 2010 Starting Monday, April 5, 2010, getting an FHA mortgage will be more expensive for borrowers.

In new guidelines set forth earlier this year, the FHA announced plans to raise additional revenue and reduce the overall risk of its mortgage portfolio.

The changes include the following:

Increase Upfront Mortgage Insurance Premiums from 1.75% to 2.25% for everyone
A plan to reduce seller concessions from 6 percent to 3 percent
An increase in minimum downpayment for FICOs 580 or lower

For your own loan, to avoid being subject to higher loan costs, make sure to have your FHA Case Number assigned prior to Monday, April 5, 2010. That means you'll want to give a full mortgage application before the weekend so your lender can register your loan in time for the deadline.

But don't leave your application to the last minute.

Friday is Good Friday so most banks will be closed. Your true FHA deadline, therefore, is Thursday April 1.

Also worth noting is that the FHA isn't done with its changes.

In its policy statement, the group also announced its plans to petition Congress to raise monthly mortgage insurance premiums. The FHA's formal request, in summary:

Raise monthly premiums by roughly 0.30%, or $25 per $100,000 borrowed per month
Lower upfront mortgage insurance premiums by 1.25%, or $1,250 per $100,000 borrowed at closing

For now, the request is neither approved nor acknowledged by Congress. It's merely a request. And in the event that Congress does approves it, the FHA reserves the right to change its projections. Either way, it means higher costs for consumers.

The best plan, therefore, is to get your FHA mortgage into underwriting ahead of the switches because borrowing money will be harder, and more costly.

3.29.2010

The Mortgage Market Week Ahead

The Mortgage Market Advisory™

The Week of March 22, 2010

Provided by Peter Bright

Mortgage rates ended the week slightly higher, but recovered on Friday to end the week down by around .500 in points and .10 in rates on a 30-year fixed.

Sparking the move in bonds and mortgage rates were a few weak Treasury Note auctions as investors may start to demand higher yields of U.S. Treasuries. The markets will have these Note auctions to contend with every other week this year. This week is an off week, but we have the 3yr, 10yr, and 30yr notes next week.

The Week Ahead:

While we won't have Note auctions this week it will be a busy one in terms of economic data points for the market to trade on. In addition, it is a holiday shortened week with the stock market closed on Friday, while bonds will be trading until noon.

The biggest data point of the week will be the monthly Employment report on Friday. There is a wide range of expectations, but most a lining up that it will show jobs added around +200k. Much of this has already been priced into the stock and bond markets, but if the number is stronger- expect bonds and mortgage pricing to worsen further. Conversely, if this number is weaker, expect bonds to improve slightly, while we would expect stocks to sell-off somewhat.

Tuesday: House Prices- we get the latest reading on the Case/Shiller Home Price index which is expected to show a slight decline in prices from the previous month. Consumer Confidence- we also get another reading on the sentiment of consumers and it is expected to make a recovery from the very week February reading.

Wednesday: Employment - we get the ADP private sector index and it is expected to show that 40k jobs were added in March. This will be important as many will use this as a proxy to gauge the Friday report. Manufacturing - we will also get a few manufacturing data points later in the morning, but we wouldn't expect them to be market movers.

Thursday: Employment - We get the weekly jobless claims report and it is expected to remain stable at 440k jobless claims last week. Construction and Manufacturing - there are a few more data points later in the morning that could be market movers in ISM and Construction data.

Friday: The stock market is closed, while the bond market is open until noon in observance of Good Friday. We get the almighty Monthly Non-Farm Payrolls Employment report and it is expected to show that we added around 200k jobs last month, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 9.7%.

Economic Calendar:

Tuesday, Mar. 30

9:00 Case/Shiller Home Price Index *HIGH*

10:00 Consumer Confidence (50.0) *HIGH*

Wednesday, Mar. 31

8:15 ADP Employment Index (+40k) *HIGH*

9:45 Chicago Mfg Survey (61.0) *Medium*

10:00 Factory Orders (+.5%) *Medium*

Thursday, Apr. 1

8:30 Weekly Jobless Claims (440k) *HIGH*

10:00 Construction Spending (-1%) *Medium*

10:00 ISM Mfg Index (57.0) *HIGH*

2:00 Auto Sales *Low*

Friday, Apr. 2

8:30 March Employment Report (+200k) *HIGH*

Mortgage Market Advisory Disclaimer

This is only our opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all parties. This service is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes. None of the information provided constitutes a solicitation, offer, or recommendation by NHLA to buy or sell any security, or to provide legal, professional, tax, accounting, or investment advice. Every lender's price desk has their own strategies and reactions to market movements. Our information is simply based on market movements and does not predict or report potential pricing adjustments by particular lenders.

Copyright © 2010 National Home Loan Advocates LLC

Latest From : Atlanta RE 5 by 5

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : March 29, 2010

Posted: 29 Mar 2010 07:45 AM PDT

Non-Farm Payrolls Mar 2008-Feb 2010 Mortgage markets tanked last week, raising rates to their highest levels in a month.

Most of the losses occurred Wednesday in what was the worst 1-day mortgage market performance in more than 6 months. Even Friday's rally could barely dent the losses. Most of the movement was tied to geopolitical concerns and worries of a ballooning federal debt load.

The best time to lock a conventional or FHA mortgage rate last week was Tuesday morning.

This week, markets should remain volatile. There's a large set of economic data due for release, plus trading volume will thin as the week goes on because markets are closed Friday for Good Friday.

Coincidentally, Friday is also the day that the March jobs report is released.

The non-farm payroll report is expected to show net job growth of 187,000 in March. This is a large number as compared to last month's net loss of 36,000 job. However, analysts are already dismissing March's numbers as skewed by both the bad storms of February, and the temporary hiring of Census workers.

In most months, major job growth would be bad for mortgage rates. This month, that won't be the case. It will take a figure north of 200,000 to cause rates to rise and the higher the actual number, the more that rates will respond.

Also this week, on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's $1.25 trillion program to support mortgage markets sunsets. Fed insiders estimate that the program dropped rates 1 percent since its inception in 2008. It's reasonable that mortgage rates will rise after its end, therefore.

3.26.2010

Atlanta Georgia To Reduce or not Reduce Mortgage Principal?

Hamp to Push Principal Reduction: The papers, citing unnamed sources, said the White House plans to announce an expansion of its foreclosure-prevention efforts to include principal writedowns for some borrowers. TheJournal said the changes "serve as a recognition that the administration's foreclosure rescue plan hasn't kept pace with the rising number of souring loans." The Times said, "the escalation in aid comes as the administration is under rising pressure from Congress to resolve the foreclosure crisis, which is straining the economy and putting millions of Americans at risk of losing their homes. But the new initiatives could well spur protests among those who have kept up their payments and are not in trouble." The Post said, "The new push …. takes direct aim at the major cause of the current wave of foreclosures: the spike in unemployment." Wall Street Journal

Latest From : Atlanta RE 5 by 5

The Home Price Index Shows Home Values Lower Broadly, But Not Specifically

Posted: 26 Mar 2010 07:45 AM PDT

Home Price Index April 2007 to January 2010

Home values fell again in January, according to the Federal Home Finance Agency's Home Price Index. Values were reported down 0.6 percent, on average.

We say "on average" because the Home Price Index is a national report. It doesn't capture the essence of a local market , or even a city market.

The most granular that the monthly Home Price Index gets is regional and January's report shows that:

Values in the Mountain states rose 2.0%
Values in the Pacific states were flat
Values in the East North Central states fell 1.8%

It's hardly helpful for home buyers entering the market, or home sellers trying to properly price a home. Furthermore, because the Home Price Index reports on a 2-month delay, its data fails to reflect the current market conditions.

Versus January -- the period from which HPI data is collected -- mortgage rates are lower, buyer activity is up, and the federal home buyer tax credit is closer to expiring. These each can have an impact on housing.

Ultimately, national real estate data like the Home Price Index is best suited for lenders and policy-makers. National data helps to identify trends that shape formal policy, but it doesn't help you, specifically.

Since peaking in April 2007, the Home Price Index is off 13.2 percent.

The Average Household Will Get $2,800 In Tax Refunds. Will You?

Posted: 25 Mar 2010 09:15 AM PDT

April 15 is Tax Day and the IRS estimates that the average U.S. household will receive a $2,800 tax refund this year. If you're among the Americans expecting a refund, this 4-minute piece from NBC's The Today Show may be helpful. It's a talk about how to receive a refund and what to do with it.

Some of the key points discussed include:

Why state-issued tax refunds may be delayed this year
How wage-earning people can claim their "Making Work Pay" tax credit of up to $800
How to direct a tax refund to a 529 college savings plan for an even bigger tax refund

There's also some sensible pointers on using tax refunds to pay down credit card debt, and to fund retirement plans, among other purposes.

If you haven't started your tax planning yet, try to avoid leaving it for the last weekend. Not only will your tax preparer have more time for you now, but you'll leave yourself more time to track down important statements and receipts that can boost your federal and state tax deductions.

Taxes are due in 21 days.

3.24.2010

Latest From : Atlanta RE 5 by 5

Existing Home Sales Flatten And Point To A Much Better Spring

Posted: 24 Mar 2010 07:45 AM PDT

Existing Home Sales Feb 2008-Feb 2010 As expected, Existing Home Sales fell in February, slipping 30,000 units versus January's numbers. It's the 4th straight month in which Existing Home Sales were lower, month-over-month.

An "existing" home is one that is previously owned and lived-in (i.e. not new construction).

Existing Home Sales peaked in November 2009, just as the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit was set to expire. Immediately thereafter, according to the National Association of Realtors®, monthly sales plunged 17 percent in December, then another 7 percent in January.

Comparatively, February's dip is a modest 0.6 percent and is more in line with the pre-tax-credit Existing Home Sales trend. The real estate market is rediscovering its normal.

But "normal" may not last for long.

When the federal home buyer's tax program was extended last year, the new rules stated that home buyers must be under contract for their new, respective homes on, or before, April 30, 2010 in order to claim up to $8,000 in federal money. That deadline is approaching and many markets are experiencing a surge in buyer traffic as April 30 nears.

The Existing Home Sales data doesn't reflect this new demand, nor the number of new contracts written. It only accounts for home closings and, in February, closings were down.

For today's buyers, the market looks favorable. The federal tax credit is in place, mortgage rates stubbornly stick near all-time lows, and home prices are staying in check.

Existing Home Sales should gain through March and April, pressuring home prices higher. And, by the time the press reports the gains, the best deals in the city may already be gone. Consider acting sooner rather than later.

3.23.2010

Latest From : Atlanta RE 5 by 5

CNNMoney.com Predicts The Best And Worst Real Estate Markets For 2010

Posted: 23 Mar 2010 07:45 AM PDT

Real estate is local CNNMoney.com recently published its 2010 forecast and projections for home prices in the country's largest metro markets.

Listed as "Top 25" and also comprehensively by state, CNNMoney.com's home price forecasts puts Santa Rosa, California at the top of 2010's home appreciation list and Hanford, California at its bottom.

The 10 cities projected for highest home appreciation in 2010 are:

Santa Rosa, CA : +6.0%
Cheyenne, WY : +4.7%
Kennewick, WA : +4.6%
Merced, CA : +4.4%
Bremerton, WA : +4.2%
Fairbanks, AK : +4.2%
Corvallis, OR : +4.1%
Tacoma, WA : +3.9%
Anchorage, AK : +3.8%
Bend, OR : +3.3%

The Pacific Northwest is the region most heavily-represented among price gainers. The Southeast and Middle Atlantic are most represented on the under-perform list.

However, just because a city's homes are expected to appreciate (or depreciate) in 2010, that doesn't mean that every home within its limits will follow suit. Real estate cannot be grouped on a city level like CNNMoney.com tries to. There will always be areas in demand within city limits in which prices rise, just as there will be out-of-demand areas in which prices fall.

Real estate data can't be grouped by city or even by ZIP code, really.

Real estate is more local than that.

When we say "real estate is local", it means that every street in every town has a distinct set of traits that drives its home values. Homes that are one block closer to the train; or, homes that are facing north; or, homes that are made of brick. Each of these characteristics can affect a home's desirability which, in turn, can affects its sales price.

National surveys can't capture "essence" like this. They only report on the aggregate.

For local real estate data, look to established, publicly available websites and to active, local real estate agents. Both will have data and insight that can help you. National surveys often make for good headlines, but do little to help homebuyers find good value.

3.22.2010

Latest From : Atlanta RE 5 by 5

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : March 22, 2010

Posted: 22 Mar 2010 07:45 AM PDT

Fed Funds Rate (Feb 2007 - March 2010) Mortgage markets closed unchanged last week, but that's not say mortgage rates were calm. Monday through Wednesday, rates improved steadily before a swift, late-week sell-off unwound the gains.

Mortgage rates have been very low for a very long time -- against the expectations of most market experts. The speed of the Thursday-Friday reversal may signal that markets are preparing for change.

One key story from last week was the Federal Open Market Committee's scheduled Tuesday meeting. Upon adjournment, the Fed voted 9-1 to hold the Fed Funds rate in its current target range near 0.000% and reiterated its plan to keep rates low for "an extended period of time".

Kansas Fed President Thomas Hoenig was the lone dissenting vote.

For rate shoppers , take note.

The Fed specifically mentioned that the its $1.25 trillion mortgage buyback program will end, as planned, March 31, 2010. This could force rates higher over the next two weeks because, according to the Fed, the existence of a buyback program forced rates lower by 1 percentage point in 2009.

When the program ends, it's expected that markets will give back some of that 1 percent, leading to higher mortgage rates for conventional and FHA borrowers.

This week, in addition to the buyback program's looming end-date, there's several other potential influences on mortgage rates:

The Existing Home Sales data for February is released Tuesday, along with the Home Price Index
The New Home Sales data for February is released Wednesday
Consumer Confidence data hits Friday

Strength in any -- or all three -- of these reports should put pressure on mortgage rates to rise.

But there's one wildcard this week and that's the aforementioned Kansas Fed President Hoenig's scheduled speech Wednesday morning. Typically, Fed members stay on message when making public appearances, but Hoenig is expected to talk about why rates should be higher, and what the Fed needs to do to prepare the economy for late-2010 and beyond.

His words could lead Wall Street to rethink its position on the mortgage bond market and that could cause rates to spike Wednesday afternoon.

Mortgage rates remain volatile and are still relatively low. If you're unsure of whether now is a good time to lock in, consider that there's a lot more room for rates to rise than to fall right now. Especially with momentum shifting for the worse.

3.19.2010

Latest From : Atlanta RE 5 by 5

For Clues About The Future Of Mortgage Rates, Watch For Inflation

Posted: 19 Mar 2010 07:45 AM PDT

Inflation is bad for mortgage rates Homes are more affordable across the nation as the housing market emerges from a slow winter season with mortgage rates still near 5 percent.

Soft housing and low rates are an excellent combination for home buyers but whereas home values rise with a gradual pace, mortgage rates change in an instant. It's something worth watching.

Each 0.25% increase to conventional or FHA rates adds approximately $16 per month for each $100,000 borrowed. Mortgage rate volatility can change your household budget.

If you're trying to gauge whether rates will be rising or falling, one keyword for which to listen is "inflation". Mortgage rates are highly responsive to inflation.

By definition, inflation is when a currency loses its value; when what used to cost $2.00 now costs $2.15. As consumers, we perceive inflation as goods becoming more expensive. However, it's not that goods are more expensive, per se. It's that the dollars used to buy them are worth less.

This is a big deal to mortgage rates because mortgage bonds are denominated, bought, and sold in U.S. dollars. As the dollar loses value to inflation, therefore, so does the value of every mortgage bond in existence. When bonds lose their value, investors don't want them and bond prices fall. Mortgage rates move opposite of bond prices.

Prices down, rates up.

In today's market, the relationship between inflation and mortgage rates is helping home buyers. The Cost of Living made its smallest annual gain in 6 years last month and the Fed has repeatedly said that inflation will stay low for some time. The combination is driving investors to buy mortgage bonds which, in turn, is suppresses rates.

So long as it lasts, the cost of homeownership will remain relatively low. Combined with the expiring tax credit, the timing to buy a home may be as good as it gets.

3.18.2010

Latest From : Atlanta RE 5 by 5

Single-Family Housing Starts Hold Steady For The 8th Straight Month

Posted: 18 Mar 2010 07:45 AM PDT

Housing Starts Mar 2008-Feb 2010 Single-family Housing Starts idled last month, dropping just 3,000 units from the month prior, or 0.2%.

According to the Commerce Department's report, February marked the 8th straight month in which Housing Starts straddled the half-million marker, dating back to June 2009.

This is a different slant on the Housing Starts story as told by the press.

Most publications are reporting that Housing Starts fell 5.9 percent in February. Technically, this is true. Housing Starts did fall 5.9 percent last month. However, the Housing Starts data is comprised of three parts:

Single-Family Housing Starts
2-4 Unit Housing Starts
"Apartment Building" Housing Starts (i.e. 5 or more units)

The press tends to lump all 3 together but that's not relevant for everyday homeowners and buyers.

2-4 unit homes, and apartments and condos are a different housing class as compared to single-family homes and are notoriously volatile, too. Single-family starts are more steady and better reflect the country's housing stock.

Single-family housing starts are up 32 percent over the last 12 months.

Meanwhile, the pace of new buyers has not kept up with the pace of new housing stock. Therefore, because home prices are based on supply-and-demand, the price for a newly-built home was down, on average, 7 percent nationwide in January.

With the federal home buyer tax credit expiring soon, home buyers will likely create new demand for homes. And with Housing Starts holding steady near 500,000, that should push prices higher through the spring months.