The Mortgage Market Week Ahead

The Mortgage Market Week Ahead

The Mortgage Market Advisory™ The Week of March 22, 2010  Provided by Peter Bright
Mortgage rates ended the week slightly higher, but recovered on Friday to end the week down by around .500 in points and .10 in rates on a 30-year fixed. Sparking the move in bonds and mortgage rates were a few weak Treasury Note auctions as investors may start to demand higher yields of U.S. Treasuries. The markets will have these Note auctions to contend with every other week this year. This week is an off week, but we have the 3yr, 10yr, and 30yr notes next week. The Week Ahead: While we won't have Note auctions this week it will be a busy one in terms of economic data points for the market to trade on. In addition, it is a holiday shortened week with the stock market closed on Friday, while bonds will be trading until noon. The biggest data point of the week will be the monthly Employment report on Friday. There is a wide range of expectations, but most a lining up that it will show jobs added around +200k. Much of this has already been priced into the stock and bond markets, but if the number is stronger- expect bonds and mortgage pricing to worsen further. Conversely, if this number is weaker, expect bonds to improve slightly, while we would expect stocks to sell-off somewhat. Tuesday: House Prices- we get the latest reading on the Case/Shiller Home Price index which is expected to show a slight decline in prices from the previous month. Consumer Confidence- we also get another reading on the sentiment of consumers and it is expected to make a recovery from the very week February reading. Wednesday: Employment - we get the ADP private sector index and it is expected to show that 40k jobs were added in March. This will be important as many will use this as a proxy to gauge the Friday report. Manufacturing - we will also get a few manufacturing data points later in the morning, but we wouldn't expect them to be market movers. Thursday: Employment - We get the weekly jobless claims report and it is expected to remain stable at 440k jobless claims last week. Construction and Manufacturing - there are a few more data points later in the morning that could be market movers in ISM and Construction data. Friday: The stock market is closed, while the bond market is open until noon in observance of Good Friday. We get the almighty Monthly Non-Farm Payrolls Employment report and it is expected to show that we added around 200k jobs last month, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 9.7%. Economic Calendar: Tuesday, Mar. 30 9:00 Case/Shiller Home Price Index *HIGH* 10:00 Consumer Confidence (50.0) *HIGH* Wednesday, Mar. 31 8:15 ADP Employment Index (+40k) *HIGH* 9:45 Chicago Mfg Survey (61.0) *Medium* 10:00 Factory Orders (+.5%) *Medium* Thursday, Apr. 1 8:30 Weekly Jobless Claims (440k) *HIGH* 10:00 Construction Spending (-1%) *Medium* 10:00 ISM Mfg Index (57.0) *HIGH* 2:00 Auto Sales *Low* Friday, Apr. 2 8:30 March Employment Report (+200k) *HIGH*   Mortgage Market Advisory Disclaimer This is only our opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of any or all parties. This service is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes. None of the information provided constitutes a solicitation, offer, or recommendation by NHLA to buy or sell any security, or to provide legal, professional, tax, accounting, or investment advice. Every lender's price desk has their own strategies and reactions to market movements. Our information is simply based on market movements and does not predict or report potential pricing adjustments by particular lenders.
Copyright © 2010 National Home Loan Advocates LLC