What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - July 15, 2013

The Fed's release of the minutes for the June FOMC meeting was the most noteworthy economic event last week; the minutes repeated the Fed's recent statement concerning the wind-down of its current monetary easing policy.

The minutes indicated that about half of meeting participants wanted to end the quantitative easing (QE) policy by year end, while "many others" preferred to end the program in 2014.

This split suggests that days are numbered for the Fed's monthly purchase of $85 billion in Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The minutes also revealed that the Fed would not be selling off MBS as QE is ended. This would likely prevent additional potential for mortgage rates to increase as demand for bonds would decline when the Fed stops its monthly purchases.

Mortgage Rates Typically Rise When Bond And MBS Prices Fall

U.S. financial markets showed little reaction to the Fed minutes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a quick gain of about 40 points that quickly retreated. The Wall Street Journal interprets the lackluster response to the Fed minutes as investors growing accustomed to the eventual end of the QE program; it's also possible that the markets interpreted the FOMC minutes as "old news," as the minutes contained information included in the Fed statement given after June's FOMC meeting.

The FOMC minutes reported that details of tapering the QE program will be given by Chairman Ben Bernanke during his customary press conference after the Fed presents the FOMC meeting statement. The minutes also asserted that the Fed will closely monitor economic and financial developments as part of their decision-making for ending QE.

The minutes stated that the current Federal Funds rate of 0.00 to 0.25 percent will remain in place for some time after QE is ended.

Mortgage rates rose last week according to Freddie Mac. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage moved to 4.51 percent from last week's 4.29 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose to 3.53 percent from 3.39 percent. Discount points for both types of loans rose from 0.70 percent to 0.80 percent.

Rising mortgage rates suggest that borrowers may soon return to adjustable rate mortgages or hybrids such as the 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage, which was reported at an average rate of 3.26 percent with discount points of 0.70 percent.

What's Coming Up

On Monday, retail sales for June will be released. This is an important indicator for the general economy. Tuesday's news includes NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for July.

On Wednesday, Housing Starts for June will be released. Thursday's news includes weekly Jobless Claims and Leading Economic Indicators. No economic news is scheduled for Friday.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - May 20, 2013

Last week was jam-packed with economic news; here are some highlights with emphasis on housing and mortgage related news:

Monday: Retail sales for April increased to -0.1 percent from the March reading of -0.5 percent and also surpassed Wall Street's downward forecast of -0.6 percent. Retail sales are important to economic recovery as sales of goods and services represent approximately 70 percent of the U.S. economy.

Tuesday: The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its Small Business Optimism Index for April with encouraging results. April's index rose by 2.6 points to 92.1. A reading of 90.7 indicates economic recovery. This index is based on a survey of 1873 NFIB member businesses.

Wednesday: The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for May matched investor expectations with a reading of 44. At three points above the March reading of 41, this report suggests that builders are slowly gaining confidence in national housing markets. 

Thursday: The U.S. Commerce Department reported that Housing Starts fell by 16.5 percent in April to a seasonally-adjusted annual level of 853,000 from 1.02 million housing starts in March. This reading fell short of investors' consensus of 965,000 housing starts, however, this decrease was caused by the volatile apartment construction sector.

Friday: Consumer sentiment for May surpassed investor expectations of +0.3 percent and came in at +0.6 percent. As consumer sentiment improves, it's likely that more consumers will buy homes.

Rising Interest Rates Show Strengthening Economy

Mortgage rates rose last week according to Freddie Mac. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose from 3.42 percent to 3.51 percent with borrowers paying 0.70 in discount points and all of their closing costs.

15-year fixed rate mortgages rose from 2.61 percent last week to 2.69 percent this week with borrowers paying 0.70 in discount points and all of their closing costs.

This news is consistent with a strengthening economy, but is narrowing opportunities for home buyers seeking both affordable home prices and low mortgage rates.

Federal Open Market Committee Minutes To Be Released This Week

Looking ahead, economic news for this week includes the Existing Home Sales report for April with an expectation of 5.00 million homes sold on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis against the March tally of 4.93 million homes sold.

Also set for release on Wednesday are the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes for the meeting held April 30 and May 1. The FOMC meetings typically include discussions of the Federal Reserve's current policy on quantitative easing (QE) which consists of the Fed buying $85 billion per month in MBS and treasury bonds.

When the QE program ends, mortgage rates will likely increase as bond prices decline due to lesser demand.

Thursday brings the weekly Jobless Claims Report along with New Home Sales for April. The consensus for new homes sold is 430,000 as compared to the March reading of 417,000 new homes sold.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, will release its Home Price Index for March on Thursday. 

Fed Meeting Statement Points To Continuing Low Interest Rates

Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement indicates the Federal Reserve's commitment to keeping long term interest rates and inflation under control.

The Fed will continue monitoring inflation, but does not expect inflation to rise more than 0.50 percent above its target rate of 2.00 percent over the next one to two years.

Ongoing monitoring of inflation and unemployment, as well as developing economic news, will guide the Fed in its future determinations concerning policy for its present iteration of quantitative easing (QE3).

Currently, the Fed purchases $85 billion of treasury securities and mortgage –backed securities each month with the goal of keeping long-term interest rates lower.

This includes mortgage rates, which can assist homebuyers with qualifying for mortgage loans in an environment of increasing home prices. Other goals include stabilizing the labor market, and limiting inflation.

Job Growth To Be Determining Factor On Fed Interest Rate Action

The statement also noted that the Fed will keep its interest rates between 0.00 and 0.25 percent, until the Fed sees the national unemployment rate fall below 6.50 percent.

While noting that the housing sector is improving, the Fed stated concerns about ongoing high unemployment rates. Jobs are a key aspect to supporting the economy, as 70 percent of the U.S. economy involves the purchase of goods and services by consumers. 

The Fed also repeated its position to evaluate the efficacy of its quantitative easing program; if the agency finds that the program is not achieving their desired objectives, changes to the program can be expected.

While a clear majority of FOMC members voted to keep current policies intact, one member voted against this course of action citing the potential for continued quantitative easing at current levels to fuel inflation.

The bottom line for today's statement is that the Fed continues its "wait and see" position concerning quantitative easing and low federal interest rates.The committee also re-asserted its intention to gradually reduce quantitative easing when it's time for a change.

In addition, the Fed is committed to monitoring a wide range of economic data with an eye toward adjusting its policies in the best interest of economic recovery. 

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - March 25th, 2013

Last week's economic news was dominated by events in Cyprus and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday.

Mortgage rates fell last Monday as investors became concerned over news that a Cyprus bank bailout was in the works.

Federal Reserve Holding Course With Mortgage Backed Security Purchases

The FOMC met on Wednesday and in a press release after the meeting, noted that no immediate changes to the present economic easing program would be made.

The Fed officers will continue to monitor the nation's economy, and are eventually expected to implement a gradual reduction of their monthly bond and mortgage backed security (MBS) purchases when the nation's economy has recovered sufficiently.

The Fed currently purchases $85 billion in bonds and MBS in an effort to keep long term interest rates low.

If the Fed should reduce its purchases, mortgage rates would be likely to rise. 

Investors viewed the Fed's announcement as positive news and bond prices fell, which caused mortgage rates to rise, but mortgage rates finished the week slightly lower than last week.

Continuing Economic Turmoil In Europe May Encourage Lower US Mortgage Rates

In global news, the European Union (EU) threatened to withdraw its promise of aid to Cyprus banks if they cannot raise funds required as a condition of the bailout.

A one-time tax on bank deposits was suggested, but ultimately rejected as Cypriots nixed the idea of taxing their savings, even on a one-time basis.

Cyprus banks provide a tax shelter for foreign citizens, and the banking system in Cyprus is disproportionately large compared to its size.

Failure of this banking system could create serious repercussions for global financial markets.

The EU has set today, March 25 as a deadline for Cyprus to find the funding required for the bailout to be given.

Investors could seek safe haven in bonds if the EU withdraws its offer of a bailout to Cyprus banks, which usually creates downward pressure on mortgage rates.

If the EU offers Cyprus banks a bailout, then investors may respond positively and buy more stocks which would likely cause mortgage rates to rise.

Upcoming Economic Reports Could Affect Mortgage Rates

Other economic news scheduled for next week includes Treasury Auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

The Department of Commerce issues its monthly New Home Sales report on Tuesday.

This report measures sales of new privately owned single family homes, and indicates buyer interest in new homes and also future demand for goods and services used by homeowners.

 

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - March 25th, 2013

Last week's economic news was dominated by events in Cyprus and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday.

Mortgage rates fell last Monday as investors became concerned over news that a Cyprus bank bailout was in the works.

Federal Reserve Holding Course With Mortgage Backed Security Purchases

The FOMC met on Wednesday and in a press release after the meeting, noted that no immediate changes to the present economic easing program would be made.

The Fed officers will continue to monitor the nation's economy, and are eventually expected to implement a gradual reduction of their monthly bond and mortgage backed security (MBS) purchases when the nation's economy has recovered sufficiently.

The Fed currently purchases $85 billion in bonds and MBS in an effort to keep long term interest rates low.

If the Fed should reduce its purchases, mortgage rates would be likely to rise. 

Investors viewed the Fed's announcement as positive news and bond prices fell, which caused mortgage rates to rise, but mortgage rates finished the week slightly lower than last week.

Continuing Economic Turmoil In Europe May Encourage Lower US Mortgage Rates

In global news, the European Union (EU) threatened to withdraw its promise of aid to Cyprus banks if they cannot raise funds required as a condition of the bailout.

A one-time tax on bank deposits was suggested, but ultimately rejected as Cypriots nixed the idea of taxing their savings, even on a one-time basis.

Cyprus banks provide a tax shelter for foreign citizens, and the banking system in Cyprus is disproportionately large compared to its size.

Failure of this banking system could create serious repercussions for global financial markets.

The EU has set today, March 25 as a deadline for Cyprus to find the funding required for the bailout to be given.

Investors could seek safe haven in bonds if the EU withdraws its offer of a bailout to Cyprus banks, which usually creates downward pressure on mortgage rates.

If the EU offers Cyprus banks a bailout, then investors may respond positively and buy more stocks which would likely cause mortgage rates to rise.

Upcoming Economic Reports Could Affect Mortgage Rates

Other economic news scheduled for next week includes Treasury Auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

The Department of Commerce issues its monthly New Home Sales report on Tuesday.

This report measures sales of new privately owned single family homes, and indicates buyer interest in new homes and also future demand for goods and services used by homeowners.

 

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - March 25th, 2013

Last week's economic news was dominated by events in Cyprus and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday.

Mortgage rates fell last Monday as investors became concerned over news that a Cyprus bank bailout was in the works.

Federal Reserve Holding Course With Mortgage Backed Security Purchases

The FOMC met on Wednesday and in a press release after the meeting, noted that no immediate changes to the present economic easing program would be made.

The Fed officers will continue to monitor the nation's economy, and are eventually expected to implement a gradual reduction of their monthly bond and mortgage backed security (MBS) purchases when the nation's economy has recovered sufficiently.

The Fed currently purchases $85 billion in bonds and MBS in an effort to keep long term interest rates low.

If the Fed should reduce its purchases, mortgage rates would be likely to rise. 

Investors viewed the Fed's announcement as positive news and bond prices fell, which caused mortgage rates to rise, but mortgage rates finished the week slightly lower than last week.

Continuing Economic Turmoil In Europe May Encourage Lower US Mortgage Rates

In global news, the European Union (EU) threatened to withdraw its promise of aid to Cyprus banks if they cannot raise funds required as a condition of the bailout.

A one-time tax on bank deposits was suggested, but ultimately rejected as Cypriots nixed the idea of taxing their savings, even on a one-time basis.

Cyprus banks provide a tax shelter for foreign citizens, and the banking system in Cyprus is disproportionately large compared to its size.

Failure of this banking system could create serious repercussions for global financial markets.

The EU has set today, March 25 as a deadline for Cyprus to find the funding required for the bailout to be given.

Investors could seek safe haven in bonds if the EU withdraws its offer of a bailout to Cyprus banks, which usually creates downward pressure on mortgage rates.

If the EU offers Cyprus banks a bailout, then investors may respond positively and buy more stocks which would likely cause mortgage rates to rise.

Upcoming Economic Reports Could Affect Mortgage Rates

Other economic news scheduled for next week includes Treasury Auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

The Department of Commerce issues its monthly New Home Sales report on Tuesday.

This report measures sales of new privately owned single family homes, and indicates buyer interest in new homes and also future demand for goods and services used by homeowners.

 

Fed Meeting Statement Reveals Good News For Real Estate

The Federal Reserve's statement after yesterday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting left no doubt as to the Fed's dual commitment to keeping long term interest rates down and encouraging economic growth.

No changes to the Fed's current bond-buying program were made during today's FOMC meeting.

The Fed's monthly purchase of $85 billion in bonds and MBS works by boosting bond prices, which typically helps with keeping mortgage rates lower.

The Fed reaffirmed its position that it will not withdraw or reduce monetary easing until the unemployment rate is substantially lower.

Unemployment Rate Improving Nationally

Fed predictions for the national unemployment rate improved; December's outlook for 2013 estimated the unemployment rate at between 7.4 to 7.7 percent; the Fed now expects unemployment rates of 7.3 to 7.5 percent by the end of this year.

February's jobs report likely influenced this revision as the unemployment rate fell from 7.8 to 7.7 percent.

The Fed notes that while employment rates are improving, they remain elevated which supports the Fed's decision not to modify its bond purchase program in the near term.

Lower unemployment rates suggest that more people will be financially prepared for buying homes or refinancing their existing mortgage loans, and the unemployment rate is also expected to fall due to growing numbers of baby boomers leaving the workforce.

Lower Inflation Rates Boost Consumer Purchasing Power

The Fed slightly revised its December forecast for 2013 economic growth of between 2.3 to 3.0 percent.

Now the Fed predicts economic growth to range between 2.3 and 2.8 percent in 2013, but negative influences including a higher payroll tax and government spending cuts are expected to slow the rate of economic growth.

Concerning inflation, the Fed expects an inflation rate of between 1.3 and 1.7 percent this year and for inflation to remain below 2 percent through 2015.

Lower inflation rates allow consumers more discretionary spending power, which can further boost the economy and improve consumer confidence in making big ticket purchases including homes and related items and services in Georgia and around the country.

Fed Keeping Tabs On European Economic Issues

Fed officers are continuing to monitor economic developments in Europe, and expressed concerns that the situation remains fragile.

Commenting in a press conference held after the FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke characterized economic issues in Cyprus as “difficult”, but said that the Fed doesn't expect these developments to have major impact on U.S. financial markets.

Its plan to keep short term interest rates near zero until unemployment rates reach 6.5 percent or the inflation rate exceeds 2.5 percent further support the Fed's plan to keep its monetary easing policy intact for the near term.

Unless unexpected or catastrophic events occur which would cause sudden or rapid economic changes, the Fed appears unlikely to announce major changes in its policy.

Fed Considers Future of Quantitative Easing

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released minutes from its January meeting last Wednesday, as it generally does three weeks following the most recent meeting.  

The FOMC is a committee within the Federal Reserve System tasked with overseeing the purchase and sale of US Treasury securities by the Fed.

The Federal Reserve makes key decisions regarding interest rates and looks to this committee for advice on how and when to take action.

The Future Of Quantitative Easing

One of the main topices that Fed leaders discussed was the future of its ongoing program of quantitative easing (QE).

Currently, the Fed plans to continue its monthly purchase of treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) with the objective of keeping the inflation rate at or below 2 percent.

The Fed plans to phase out quantitative easing when the national unemployment rate reaches 6.5 percent.

Fed leaders opposed to current quantitative easing brought up concerns about risk exposure to the Fed as it continues acquiring large quantities of bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

Other concerns included the potential for negative impact on financial markets if the Fed sustains its current policy of quantitative easing.

The Risk Of Inflation Creates Pause

Inflationary risks were also cited as a reason for re-evaluating the current policy for quantitative easing.

As the fed continues to purchase more and more mortgage-backed securities to keep interest rates down, a higher potential risk for inflationary pressure results.

Rising inflation rates would cause mortgage rates to worsen.

FOMC members concerned about current policy for quantitative easing suggested that the Fed should prepare to vary the timing of its purchases according to economic conditions rather than committing to scheduled purchases of specific amounts of bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for March 19-20, 2013.

 

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : February 4, 2012

Mortgage rates worsened last week amid evidence of an improving economy. Conforming mortgage rates climbed in Georgia and nationwide, rising to a 4-month high.

Freddie Mac has the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate at 3.53% for borrowers willing to pay 0.7 discount points plus a full set of closing costs.

There was plenty of news on which for rates to move last week.

First, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met and voted to hold the Fed Funds Rate in its current target range near 0.00 percent. The Fed also recommitted to purchasing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and Treasury securities on the open market until such time as the national Unemployment Rate reaches 6.5%, or until inflation rates rise.

Then, Friday, it was shown in the Non-Farm Payrolls report that the national jobless rate had climbed to 7.9 percent, a statistic Wall Street pinned to Hurricane Sandy. In addition, it was shown that 157,000 net new jobs were added to the U.S. economy in January.

This was a slight improvement from the month prior's revised figures, and marked the 27th consecutive month of U.S. job growth. 

Also last week, the National Association of REALTORS® reported the December Pending Home Sales Index to be lower than expected; largely the result of shortages of available homes in many areas.

In addition, Durable Orders for December were more than twice what investors expected; a further indication of a strengthening U.S. economy.

Lastly, the ISM Index for January surpassed Wall Street's expectations. This manufacturing index is considered an indicator of future inflationary trends. An upward trend in this index suggests rising mortgage rates. While current mortgage rates remain relatively low, they can be expected to continue rising as the economy improves.

This upcoming week will be quieter with fewer economic series scheduled for release. Factory Orders for December will be announced, as will the ISM Services Index and Jobless Claims. Mortgage rates may continue to rise.

Breaking Down The Federal Reserve Statement (January 2013 Edition)

The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to maintain the Federal Funds Rate within its current range of zero to 0.25 percent, and to continue its current stimulus program of purchasing $85 billion monthly in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

Citing weather-related events such as Hurricane Sandy and drought in the Midwest, the committee said in its statement that information received since its December 2012 meeting "suggests that growth in economic activity has paused in recent months in large part because of weather-related disruptions and other transitory factors."

Concerns over the then-looming fiscal cliff crisis may have also contributed to the economic contraction during the last quarter of 2012. Positive economic trends observed by the Fed included:

• Improved household spending
• Improving housing markets
• Growth in business fixed investments

The Fed initiated its third round of quantitative easing (QE3) in September as part of an ongoing effort to hold down interest rates and to encourage business spending. The benchmark Federal Funds Rate will remain between zero and.0.25 percent until the unemployment rate falls to 6.5 percent and provided that inflation remains stable.

The Fed Funds Rate has stayed near zero since December 2008.

The national unemployment rate was 7.8 percent in December, and Wall Street expects it to be 7.7 percent for January. The Department of Labor will release its monthly jobs report on Friday; this report includes the monthly unemployment rate. Inflation is expected to remain at or below the Fed's target level of 2.0 percent or less for the medium-term.

While noting that "strains on global financial markets have eased somewhat," the FOMC said that it "continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook." Low overall interest rates and gradual inflation work in favor of home buyers as home prices and mortgage rates are likely to rise at a gradual pace.

Mortgage rates in Atlanta improved slightly after the FOMC release.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : January 28, 2013

Mortgage rates rose last week as investors gained confidence in the global economy. China and Europe posted better-than-expected manufacturing rates, U.S. Jobless Claims fell for the second straight week, and the worst of the European debt crisis appears to have passed.

Last week's economic news provided further evidence of a strengthening U.S. economy.

The National Association of REALTORS® released its Existing Home Sales report, which indicates that existing home sales improved by 13 percent on a year-over-year basis and are now at their highest point since 2007. The group expects sales of existing homes to increase by 9 percent in 2013.

The Commerce Department released its monthly New Home Sales report; while new home sales for December fell short of Wall Street's expectations, sales of new homes are almost 20 percent higher than they were one year ago.

Growing demand for homes coupled with lower inventories of available homes suggests that the days of rock-bottom home prices and low mortgage rates are dwindling.

According to Freddie Mac, the average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed rate loan was 3.42 percent with borrowers paying 0.7 percent in discount points plus closing costs. The average rate for a 15- year fixed rate mortgage was 2.71 percent with borrowers paying 0.7 percent in discount points plus closing costs.

While slight, the week-over-week increase in mortgage rates in Atlanta could become a trend.

Weekly Jobless Claims fell below Wall Street forecasts for the second week in a row. 330,000 new jobless claims were filed; far fewer new claims were filed than the 360,000 new jobless claims expected by investors. New jobless claims also fell below the prior week's 335,000 new jobless claims. Fewer jobless claims are a sign of a stabilizing economy.

Mortgage rates typically rise as investors gain confidence in the economy and financial markets.

This week's economic news calendar is jam-packed.

Investors await the outcome of the  Federal Open Market Committee's first scheduled meeting of 2013, treasury auctions are scheduled for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, and the Pending Home Sales Index will be released.

Plus, the Department of Labor's Non-farm Payrolls Report and Unemployment Report will be released Friday morning.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : January 7, 2013

Mortgage rates in Marietta rose during the first week of 2013.

The fiscal cliff crisis was resolved prior to the market's opening Wednesday, when legislators voted to approve a deal. While many tax cuts were extended for taxpayers earning less than $450,000 annually, other facets of the fiscal cliff issue are yet to be addressed, including budget cuts for federal government agencies.

Investors were surprised to learn that the Fed may end its third round of quantitative easing (QE3) sometimes in 2013. The FOMC meeting minutes for December 2012 suggested that Fed support for its QE3 program has waned as the economy has improved.

First-time jobless claims increased for the week ending December 29, 2012 to 372,000 from the prior week's 350,000, worse than Wall Street's consensus opinion of 360,000 new jobless claims.

The December 2012 Non-Farm Payrolls surpassed analyst expectations, posting 155,000 net new jobs for the month. The report also showed the national Unemployment Rate rising one-tenth of one percentage point to 7.8%. When the jobless rate falls to 6.5%, the Federal Reserve is expected to begin raising the Fed Funds Rate from its current target range near zero percent.

Overall, mortgage rates rose by as much as 0.25 percentage points last week. However, because the increase occurred wholly between Wednesday and Friday, Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey failed to include it.

Freddie Mac reported the previous week's average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 3.34 percent for borrowers paying 0.7 percent discount points plus closing costs. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was 2.64 percent for borrowers paying 0.7 discount points plus closing costs.

As this week opens, mortgage rates are considerably higher.

This week's scheduled economic news includes Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday; weekly Jobless Claims report on Thursday; and not much else. There will be planned speeches, however, from five members of the Federal Reserve, including Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker.

Fed President Lacker was the lone dissenting vote among voting FOMC members in each of last year's policy votes. 

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : December 17, 2012

Mortgage bonds worsened last week, moving mortgage rates higher. Economic news was mostly positive and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) changed some of Wall Street expectations for future monetary policy.

Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate at 3.32 percent nationwide for borrowers willing to pay an accompanying 0.7 discount points plus closing costs. The average 15-year fixed rate mortgage rate was listed at 2.66 percent nationwide with an accompanying 0.6 discount points plus closing costs.

Both mortgage rates had climbed by week's end, however. Mortgage rates made their best levels Monday afternoon. Between Tuesday and Friday, mortgage rates in Alpharetta climbed.

Also last week, the National Association of Homebuilders/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI) reported 201 improving metropolitan economies nationwide. This index uses data including local employment statistics and home values to determine whether an area's economy is "improving".

76 new areas were added to the IMI list in December as compared to November. The geographic diversity the newly-added markets suggests an overall improvement in the national economy.

Last week's major event, however, was the 2-day Federal Reserve meeting, which adjourned Wednesday.

The post-meeting press release after included the Fed's commitment to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent where it's been since December 2008. However, the Fed announced a change to in its plans to raise the Fed Funds Rate from near-zero at a future date.

Previously, the Fed had said it would raise the Fed Funds Rate beginning in mid-2015. Now, the Fed says it will start to raise rates when the national unemployment rate reaches 6.5 percent.

This week, mortgage rates have a lot to move on including Housing Starts (Wednesday) and Existing Home Sales (Thursday) from the housing sector; Jobless Claims (Thursday) from the Labor Department; and a key inflation reading from the Department of Commerce. Each has the capability to move mortgage rates.

Markets will respond to Fiscal Cliff discussions, too.

Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (December 12 , 2012)

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent Wednesday.

For the tenth consecutive meeting, the FOMC vote was nearly unanimous. Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker was the lone dissenter in the 9-1 vote.

The Fed Funds Rate has been near zero percent since December 2008.

In its press release, the Federal Reserve noted that, since its last meeting in late-October, the U.S. economy has expanded "at a moderate pace" despite "weather-related disruptions". It also acknowledged that "strains in global financial markets" remain a threat to U.S. economic growth.

This comment is in direct reference to the Eurozone, its sovereign debt concerns, and its nation's economies.

The Fed included the following observations in its statement, too :

1. Growth in employment is expanding but unemployment is elevated
2. Inflation pressures are stable, and below the Fed's target range of 2%
3. Business spending on equipment and structures has slowed

In addressing the housing market, the Fed said that there has been "further signs" of improvement and the group re-affirmed its commitment to the $40-billion monthly QE3 bond buying program.

QE3 is meant to suppress U.S. mortgage rates from rising too high, too quickly.

Lastly, the Federal Reserve announced an explicit economic target for when it will begin to consider raising the Fed Funds Rate from its current target range near 0.000%. When the national Unemployment Rate reaches 6.5%, the Fed said, it will likely move to start raising its benchmark borrowing rate. 

Previously, the Fed had provided only a date-based target of mid-2015.

The 6.5% Unemployment Rate target may be pre-empted by rising inflation rates. The Fed does not expect price pressures to mount prior to jobless rates dropping from the current 7.7% levels, however.

Mortgage rates in Atlanta are rising post-FOMC announcement. Many lenders raised mortgage rates mid-day Wednesday in response to the Fed's statement. 

The FOMC's next scheduled meeting is a two-day event scheduled for January 29-30, 2013.

The Federal Reserve Begins A 2-Day Meeting Today

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins a 2-day meeting today, its last of 8 scheduled meetings this year.

The Federal Open Market Committee is a 12-person subcommittee within the Federal Reserve. It's the group which votes upon U.S. monetary policy. 

The monetary policy action for which the FOMC is most well-known is its setting of the Fed Funds Funds. The Fed Funds Rate is the interest rate at which banks borrow money from each other overnight.

Since late-2008, the Fed Funds Rate has been near zero percent.

Prime Rate, a business and consumer interest rate used in lines of credit and credit card rates, is based on the Fed Funds Rate. Prime Rate has been similarly unchanged since 2008.

One rate which the Federal Reserve does not set is the 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) rate.

Like all other mortgage rates, the 30-year FRM is based on the market value of mortgage-backed bonds; securities bought and sold by investors.

There is no correlation between the Federal Reserve's Fed Funds Rate and the everyday homeowner's 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate. Some months, the two rates converge. Other months, they diverge. Since 2000, they've been separated by as many as 5.29 percentage points.

They've been as close as 0.52 percentage points.

However, although the Federal Reserve does not set U.S. mortgage rates, that doesn't mean that it can't influence them. The Fed's post-meeting press release has been known to make mortgage rates get volatile.

If, in its post-meeting press release, the Fed notes that the U.S. economy is slowing and that new economic stimulus is warranted, mortgage rates will likely fall throughout Georgia. This is because additional Fed stimulus would likely lend support to U.S. mortgage markets which would, in turn, boost demand for mortgage-backed bonds.

Conversely, if the Fed acknowledges stronger-than-expected growth in the U.S. economy and no need for new stimulus, mortgage rates are expected to rise.

Either way, mortgage rates will change Wednesday upon the FOMC's adjournment -- we just don't know in which direction. Rate shoppers may see fluctuations of as much as 0.250 percent.

The FOMC adjourns at 12:30 PM ET.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : December 10, 2012

Mortgage bonds worsened last week as Fiscal Cliff talks moved closer to resolution and as the U.S. economy showed continued signs of growth.

Conforming mortgage rates in Georgia rose slightly, edging off the all-time lows late in November.

According to Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey, the average 30-year fixed rate conforming mortgage rate was 3.34% last week for home buyers and refinancing households willing to pay 0.7 discount points at closing plus a full set of closing costs.

Freddie Mac also showed the 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaging 2.67% with an accompanying 0.7 discount points plus closing costs.

1 discount point is equal to 1 percent of your loan size.

The two big stories that moved rates worse last week were the Fiscal Cliff talks and the November jobs report.

With respect to the Fiscal Cliff, mortgage rates worsened as Capitol Hill moved closer to a deal which would avoid the dual-event of expiring U.S. tax break and a mandated government spending rollback. These events are both scheduled to occur December 31, 2012. 

Some analysts believe that these two events -- in unison -- could slow U.S. economic growth to the point of recession. Other analysts aren't so sure. However, Wall Street is choosing to be cautious. This is why a break in talks has been good for mortgage rate shoppers of late; and why steps toward avoiding one or both scenarios has been bad for rate shoppers.

Mortgage rates often rise when economic growth is expected. This explains why November's jobs report pushed mortgage rates worse Friday, too -- Wall Street underestimated the Non-Farm Payrolls report which showed 146,000 net new jobs created, and didn't expect to see the national Unemployment Rate drop to 7.7%.

This week, mortgage rates may rise again with new inflation data and a Retail Sales report set for release.

The big event, though, is the Federal Open Market Committee's 2-day meeting scheduled, set to begin Tuesday. The FOMC is not expected to add new economic stimulus, but the Fed's words can carry as much weight as its policies and actions.

The Fed will issue a statement to the markets at 12:30 PM ET Wednesday, and will host a press conference shortly thereafter. Mortgage rates are expected to remain volatile all week.

Federal Reserve : New Economic Stimulus May Be Warranted

The Federal Reserve released its October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes last week, revealing a Fed in disagreement about the future of the U.S. economy and about what, if any, stimulus may be warranted in the next 12 months.

The "Fed Minutes" recaps the conversations and debates that transpire during an FOMC meeting, and is published 3 weeks after the meeting adjourns. 

According to the October minutes, FOMC members "generally agreed" that a housing recovery is under way nationwide, citing increased housing prices, higher sales volume, and rising construction in many parts of the country.

FOMC members made no major policy changes at their last meeting, but agreed that a continuation of additional asset purchases would likely be necessary in 2013, in order to achieve a substantial improvement in the labor market.

Other notes from within the Fed Minutes included:

• On housing: Signs of improvement are "encouraging", and mortgage rates are at historic lows
• On inflation: Essentially "unchanged", notwithstanding recent increases in energy prices
• On Europe: Production indicators signal contraction in business activity and expansion
• On employment: Employment is rising, and unemployment remains high

The economic forecast prepared by the FOMC staff shows an uptick in consumer spending, residential construction, and labor market conditions which more than offset recent downgrades in the business fixed investment and the industrial production outlooks.

Through 2013, economic activity is projected to accelerate gradually, supported by a lessening in fiscal policy restraints. The Fed also anticipates that Atlanta home buyers will benefit from looser credit standards.

Low mortgage rates are helping home buyers, too.

According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate was 3.34% last week, down from 3.55% in September. This has given a boost to buyer purchasing power nationwide and the year-end housing market may reflect it. Demand for homes remains strong.

The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 11-12, 2012.

Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (September 13 , 2012)

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent Thursday. For the eighth consecutive meeting, the vote was nearly unanimous.

Just one FOMC member, Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker, dissented in the 9-1 vote.

The Fed Funds Rate has been near zero percent since December 2008. 

In its press release, the Federal Reserve noted that the U.S. economy has been expanding "at a moderate pace" in recent months, led by growth in household spending. However, "strains in global financial markets" remain a significant threat to growth in the near-term, a remark made in reference to the Eurozone and its sovereign debt and recession issues.

The Fed's statement also included the following economic observations :

1. Growth in employment has been slow with unemployment elevated
2. Inflation has been subdued, despite rising gas and oil prices
3. Business spending on equipment and structures has slowed

In addition, the Fed addressed the housing market, stating that there have been signs of improvement, "albeit from a depressed level".

The biggest news to come out of the FOMC meeting, though, was the launch of the Fed's third round of quantitative easing (QE3).

QE3 is a program by which the Federal Reserve will purchase $40 billion in mortgage-backed bonds monthly, with no defined "end date" for the program. So long as the Fed believes that the market needs support, it will keep QE3 in place.

In the near-term, QE3 is good for Marietta rate shoppers and home buyers. With the Fed in line to buy $40 billion in mortgage bonds each month, demand for bonds is expected to remain strong which, all things equal, leads mortgage rates lower.

We're seeing this already today. Mortgage pricing is improving post-FOMC, with rates nearing their lowest levels of the week.

The Fed also used its meeting to announce that it intends to hold the Fed Funds Rate near its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent until mid-2015, at least. At its last meeting, the Fed has marked an end-date of "late-2014".

The FOMC's next scheduled meeting is a two-day event, October 23-24, 2012.

FOMC Expected To Announce New Stimulus Today

The Federal Open Market Committee ends a 2-day meeting today, the group's sixth of 8 scheduled meetings this year. As a Atlanta home buyer or would-be refinancer, be ready for mortgage rates to change.

The Federal Open Market Committee is a 12-person sub-committee of the Federal Reserve. Led by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, it's the group within the Fed tasked with voting on U.S. monetary policy.

The act for which the FOMC is most well-known is its management of the Fed Funds Rate. The Fed Funds Rate is the interest rate at which banks borrow money from each other overnight. It's one of several interest rates under Federal Reserve management.

"Mortgage rates", however, is not among them.

The Federal Reserve does not set or make mortgage rates -- Wall Street does. Further, there is no historical correlation between the Fed Funds Rate and the average conforming 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate. At times, the two benchmark rates move in the same direction. Other times, they diverge.

They've been apart by as much as 5.29 percent, and have been as near as 0.52 percent.

Today, the spread between the Fed Funds Rate and the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate is roughly 3.34%. That will change beginning at 12:30 PM ET today. This is the time at which the FOMC adjourns and releases its public statement to the markets.

The FOMC is expected to announce no change in the Fed Funds Rate, leaving it within its current target range of 0.000-0.250%. How mortgage rates throughout Georgia respond to the Fed, though, will depend on whether the nation's central banker adds new market stimulus in the form of a third round of quantitative easing.

If the Fed adds new stimulus and it's deemed large enough to be propel the economy ahead, stock markets will gain and bond markets should, too. This would lead mortgage rates lower. Conversely, if the size of the stimulus is deemed too small to be effective, mortgage rates will rise. Maybe by a lot.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : September 10, 2012

Mortgage markets worsened slightly in last week's holiday-shortened week. As expected, Wall Street took its cues from Europe and from the U.S. jobs market, and mortgage rates moved across a wide range.

Home buyers in Atlanta and would-be refinancing households were greeted with wildly varying mortgage rates, depending on which day they loan-shopped.

According to Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates averaged 3.55% nationwide last week, with an accompanying 0.7 discount points.

That is, until Thursday's meeting of the European Central Bank. 

The ECB is similar to the Federal Reserve in that, among its primary functions, it provides liquidity to banking systems in times of crisis. Thursday, the European Central Bank intervened with force.

To aid Spain and Italy, the third- and fourth-largest Eurozone economies, the European Central Board launched a bond-buying program meant to reduce speculation that the two nations -- and the Euro itself -- would fail.

The move calmed investors and sparked a broad equities market rally.

U.S. mortgage rates did not fare so well, however, climbing as much as 0.25% and leaving that "Freddie Mac mortgage rate" in the dust. If you tried to lock a loan Thursday, you may have been greeted with a rate nearing 4.000 percent.

Fortunately, those rising rates were short-lived.

Friday morning, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its August Non-Farm Payrolls report and mortgage rates dropped. Far fewer jobs were created in the U.S. than was expected. 96,000 net new jobs were made in July. Wall Street had expected 130,000. This increases the likelihood of new Fed-led stimulus -- perhaps as soon as this week.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets for the 6th of eight times this year later this week; a 2-day get-together scheduled for September 12-13. The Fed may announce a new round of market stimulus. If it does, mortgage rates should fall. If it doesn't, mortgage rates may rise.

Other news affecting potential housing payments this week includes the release of key inflation data Thursday and Friday, and Friday's Retail Sales data.