Housing Starts, Building Permits Rising Into 2013

Single-family housing starts took a small step back in November.

According to the monthly Housing Starts report from the U.S. Department of Commerce, single-family housing starts tallied 565,000 in November 2012 on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. This marks a 4 percent decline from October, but is more than 100,000 higher than the count from 12 months ago.

Clearly, the nation's new home construction market is expanding.

On a regional basis, single-family housing starts have been strongest in the Midwest; and Hurricane Sandy appears to have affected the number of starts across the Northeast.

As compared to one year ago:

• Northeast Region : Housing starts down 19% on an annual basis
• Midwest Region : Housing starts up 40% on an annual basis
• South Region : Housing starts up 24% on an annual basis
• West Region : Housing starts up 33% on an annual basis

It's expected that new construction growth will continue into 2013, too. This is because the Department of Commerce report also showed Building Permits mostly unchanged for November at 565,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted annualized basis.

As compared to November 2011, this marks a 25% increase. Permits for multi-family homes are up 17%, too.

There are more building permits being issued today that at any time in the last 4 years.

For home buyers, this may be good news. Rising permits and housing starts suggests a more healthy U.S. economy, but it also means that home supplies may not be as tight throughout the next few months.

Overly-tight home supplies in some U.S. markets have contributed to rapidly rising home values. With more construction and larger home inventories, home prices may rise in 2013 less slowly.

The good news, though, is the mortgage rates in Alpharetta remain near all-time lows and low- and no-downpayment mortgage programs are abundant. For today's home buyer, there are plenty of affordable ways to purchase a home.

Talk with your real estate agent and your loan officer to see which plan works best for you.

Housing Starts Move To 2-Year High

The new construction housing market continues to make gains.

Wednesday, the U.S. Census Bureau reported Housing Starts for single-family homes up 5.5 percent in August to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized count of 535,000 units nationwide.

The report marks the fifth month of six that single-family starts increased, and marks the highest starts tally since April 2010 -- the last month of that year's federal homebuyer tax credit program.

A "housing start" is a new home on which construction has started and the steady growth in single-family starts suggests a stronger Georgia housing market into 2013.

All four U.S. regions showed single-family housing start growth on both a monthly basis and on an annual one :

• Northeast Region : 4.5% monthly growth; 31.4% annual growth
• Midwest Region : 15.6% monthly growth; 74.5% annual growth
• South Region : 3.2% monthly growth; 17.2% annual growth
• Midwest Region : 4.6% monthly growth; 23.9% annual growth

The data is just the latest in a series of signals that today's Marietta new construction housing market has put its worst days behind it.

The nation's home builders appear to agree, as well.

Earlier this week, the National Association of Homebuilders released its Housing Market Index, a monthly metric which measures homebuilder confidence in the new construction market.

The homebuilder trade association put the HMI at 40 -- a 6-year high. Builders expect a strong finish to 2012 and for momentum to carry into 2013 and beyond.

The new construction market -- like most of housing -- has been fueled by a combination of the lowest mortgage rates in history, ample access to low- and no-downpayment mortgages, and an ever-shrinking supply of new homes for sale.

In July there were just 142,000 new homes for sale nationwide, down 14% from the year prior. As supply shrinks, all things equal, new home prices rise.

If you've been considering new construction, therefore, talk to builders sooner rather than later. As demand for homes heats up, prices are likely to rise.

Housing Starts Up 26% In Last 12 Months

Sometimes, the housing data headlines tell just half the tale. The stories on May's Housing Starts figures are proving to be a terrific illustration.

Tuesday, the Census Bureau released its monthly Housing Starts report. A "housing start" is a home on which construction has started.

The report is separated by property type with a separate count for single family homes such as detached residences and town homes; for multiple-unit homes such as 2-unit, 3-unit and 4-unit structures; and, for buildings of 5-units of more such as new condominiums.

In May, Housing Starts fell 4.8 percent nationwide. This runs contrary to recent housing market statistics and home builder confidence data which both have suggested a recovery. The press picked up the story and ran the following headlines :

• Housing Starts In U.S. Fall 4.8% In May (BusinessWeek)
• Housing Starts Plunge, But Permits Surge In Mixed Market (CNBC)
• Housing Starts Slump In May (US News)

Although factually correct, these headlines are somewhat misleading. 

Housing Starts did slip 4.8 percent last month but that figure accounts for all Housing Starts. It fails isolate the single-family starts that matter to today's buyers and sellers throughout Georgia. Homeowners rarely buy multi-unit homes or entire apartment buildings.

If we remove the report's tally of 2-4 unit homes and apartment buildings, we find that, in May, single-family housing starts rose for the 4th straight month, registering 516,000 homes started on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. This is the highest tally since April 2010, the last month of that year's frderal home buyer tax credit. 

Single-family housing starts are up 26% as compared to last year. 

The housing starts report, therefore -- headlines aside -- is the latest in a series of housing market data that points to a sustained recovery nationwide. If you're planning to buy a home in 2012, consider buying in between now and September because after that point, home prices and mortgage rates are likely to be higher.

Single-Family Housing Starts Powers Ahead

The new construction housing market continues to improve.

One day after the National Association of Homebuilders reported a 5-year high in homebuilder confidence, the U.S. Census Bureau reports that single-family housing starts rose 2 percent for the second straight month last month.

In April, on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, the government reports 492,000 single-family housing starts. A "housing start" is a home on which ground has broken.

In addition, March's single-family housing starts were revised higher. What was previously reported as a three percent loss was re-measured and changed to a 0.2% gain.

The April tally marks a six percent increase over the one-year moving average and, along with the March revision, suggests that the springtime housing market may have just been seasonal. 

In March, a number of reports suggested a housing retreat :

• Existing Home Sales slipped 3%
• New Home Sales slipped 7%
• Homebuilder Confidence fell 4 points

Since then, though, low mortgage rates and affordable home prices appear to have sustained the new construction market, which now appears poised for a strong 2012. 

As one mark of proof, active buyers of newly-built homes in Atlanta and nationwide are scheduling "model home" showings at the fastest pace since 2007. The burst of foot traffic high has builders upping their sales expectations for the next 6 months.

A scenario like this would normally lead new home prices higher, but the pressure for prices to rise may be offset by the amount of new home supply coming online.

In addition to a rise in Housing Starts, the Census Bureau also reports that, in April, the number of Building Permits for single-family homes rose 2 percent to move to its second-highest level since March 2010 -- the month preceding the end of the 2010 federal Home buyer tax credit.

86 percent of homes break ground within one month of permit issuance.

It's unclear whether housing is on a steady path higher, but there's a growing body of evidence that suggests the market bottom has already passed.

Single-Family Housing Starts Slip 0.2% In March

Tuesday, the government released its March 2012 New Residential Construction report. 

The report is made up of three sections, each related to a phase of the "new home" market. The report's first part is Building Permits; the second is Housing Starts; the third is Housing Completions.

Of the three sections, it's Housing Starts that gets the most attention from the press -- mostly because, of the triad, it's the simplest for a layperson to understand. However, the manner in which Housing Starts data is reported can be misleading.

Today's newspapers offer up an excellent example.

According to the Census Bureau, total Housing Starts fell by 6% in March as compared to the month prior. 654,000 units were started on a seasonally-adjusted annualized basis.

For Housing Starts, it's the lowest reading in 5 months, a statistic suggesting that the housing market may have lost some momentum. Much of the press covered the story from a "housing is slowing" angle.

A few published headlines include : 

• U.S. Housing Starts Unexpectedly Drop To 5-Month Low (BusinessWeek)
• New Home Constructions Takes Pause (CNNMoney)
• A Delayed Winter For Housing (US World And News)

Although these headlines are accurate, they tell just half of the story.

Housing Starts did drop in March, but if we remove a subset of the data -- structures with "5 or more units"; a grouping that includes condominiums and apartment buildings -- we're left with Housing Starts for single-family residences only. It's this data that matters most to buyers in Atlanta and nationwide. 

Few home buyers buy entire apartment buildings. Most buy single-family homes. 

In March, single-family Housing Starts were down 0.2% from the month prior, or just 1,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis.

That's hardly a drop at all.

Building Permits On The Rise

The new construction housing market appears primed for growth this season.

According to the Census Bureau, the number of single-family building permits issued in February rose to 472,000 on a seasonally-adjusted, annual basis, marking the highest building permit tally since April 2010 -- the last month of that year's federal home buyer tax credit program.

Building permits are a pre-cursor to new home construction.

In 2011, from the date of permit-issuance to the date of "ground-breaking", an average of 27 calendar days passed. February's data, therefore, is a signal that the market for newly-built homes should be strong this year, an idea supported by the most recent homebuilder confidence survey.

As buyer foot traffic soars, homebuilders expect to make more sales in the next 6 months than at any time since the housing market's collapse. Builder confidence is at a 5-year high.

Last month, however, single-family housing starts slipped.

As compared to January, February's single-family housing starts fell by 50,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. The 10% drop represents the largest one-month drop since February 2011. It's a statistic that may suggest that this year's results are simply seasonal.

For buyers of new construction, the news is mixed.

Rising permits and builder confidence may mean that Marietta homebuilders will be less willing to negotiate with today's buyer on upgrades and/or home prices. However, as more new home supply is set to come online, excess housing stock could help keep home prices low. 

If you're planning to buy new construction in Georgia this year, be sure to ask your real estate agent about the local home supply, and how the market is currently trending. With mortgage rates low and the summer buying season approaching, you may find some of your best deals of the year available in just the next few weeks.

Housing Starts Stay Strong; Building Permits Rise.

The housing market has carried forward its year-end momentum. 

According to the Census Bureau, on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, January's Single-Family Housing Starts crossed the half-million unit marker for the second straight month.

This hasn't happened in close to 2 years and is the latest in a series of strong data that suggests the beleaguered housing market has turned a corner -- both nationally and locally in Atlanta.  

Although single-family starts slipped 1 percent from December, January's annualized 508,000 figure represents a 16% spike from January 2011 and is the second-highest reading since April 2010 -- the last month of 2010's federal home buyer tax credit program.

A "housing start" is a new home on which construction has started.

The strength of January's Housing Starts data surprised Wall Street analysts and is partially responsible for Thursday's unexpected mortgage rate spike. 

In hindsight, though, we should have seen this coming.

Earlier in the week, the National Association of Homebuilders announced that homebuilder confidence had climbed to its highest point since 2007 amid builder reports of rising sales volume and the most foot traffic from buyers in more than 4 years.

In addition, builders expect to sell more homes in 2012 than in 2011.

Builders are building and buyers are buying.

Meanwhile, as another sign of housing market strength, the Census Bureau reports that, in January, Building Permits moved to a multi-year high as well. Permits issued for single-family homes in January rose 1 percent from December, a statistic that suggests housing will continue its run through the spring season, at least.

86 percent of homes break ground within one month of permit issuance.

It's a good time to be a home buyer. Mortgage rates and home prices are low. Housing market momentum, however, is building. If you're on the fence about whether to buy a home in East Cobb , ask your real estate agent for additional market information.

The cost of home-ownership may never be as low as it is today.

Housing Starts Show Strength In Housing

The new construction housing market continues to show strength across the country.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Single-Family Housing Starts rose to 447,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis in November -- a 2 percent increase from October.

A "Housing Start" is defined as breaking ground on new home construction.

November's figures mark the third straight month of Single-Family Housing Starts gains. The new construction metric is now 15 percent above its all-time low, set in February of this year.

None of this should be a surprise to new home buyers in Kennesaw.

Housing data has been trending better since September with sales volumes rising and home inventories falling. Basic economics tells us that home prices should soon rise.

The good news is that low mortgage rates should keep homes affordable.

Since mid-November, the average, conventional 30-year fixed rate mortgage has hovered near 4.000% nationwide with an accompanying 0.7 discount points plus closing costs. 1 discount point equals one percent of your loan size. This is down from near 4.500% six months ago, and the drop has made a big impact on home affordability. 

• June 2011 : $200,000 mortgage costs $1,013.37 per month
• December 2011 : $200,000 mortgage costs $954.83 per month

This represents $700 in savings per year. It's no wonder home builders report the highest buyer foot traffic in 3 years. 

Meanwhile, the market shows little signs of slowing down. Building Permits are on the rise, too.

Permits for single-family homes rose to their highest levels of year in November and 89 percent of those homes will start construction within 60 days. This means that Single-Family Housing Starts should stay strong through the early part of 2012, and into the spring.

If you're planning to buy new construction in Georgia , therefore, talk to your real estate agent soon and consider moving up your time frame. With mortgage rates low and next year's buying season approaching, you may find that the best "deals" will come within the next few weeks only.

Finding Truth In September's Housing Starts Report

Headlines in newspapers can be misleading -- especially with respect to housing figures. Media coverage of the most recent Housing Starts data serves as an excellent illustration.

Wednesday, the Census Bureau released its September Housing Starts report. In it, the government said that national Housing Starts rose 15 percent in September as compared to August 2011, tallying 658,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted annualized basis.

The September reading is the highest monthly reading since April 2010, the last month of last year's home buyer tax credit.

The sudden surge in starts is big news for a housing market that has struggled of late, and the press was eager to carry the story. Here is a sampling of some headlines:

• U.S. Housing Starts Rise 15%, Hit 17-Month High (MarketWatch)
• Home Building Jumps 15% in September (ABC)
• New Construction Surges In September (LA Times)

These headlines are each accurate. However, they're also misleading.

Yes, Housing Starts did surge in September, but if we remove the "5 or more units" grouping from the Census Bureau data -- the catgory that includes apartment buildings and condominium structures -- we're left with Single-Family Housing Starts and Single-Family Housing Starts rose just 1.7 percent last month.

That's a good number, but hardly a great one. And for home buyers and sellers throughout Kennesaw and nationwide, it's the Single-Family Housing Starts that matter most. Individuals like you and I don't buy entire apartment buildings. Most often, we buy single-family homes. Therefore, that's the data for which we should watch.

The good news is that media tales work in both directions.

Building Permits dropped 5 percent last month when the volatile 5-unit-or-more-units category was included from the math. Isolating for single-family homes, we find that permits were unchanged.

This is good housing because 82% of homes begin construction within 60 days of permit-issuance, hinting at a steady, late-fall housing market.

Building Permits Rising Nationwide; Housing Starts To Follow

Single-Family Housing Starts fell for the second consecutive month, dropping to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 417,000 units in August 2011.

A "Housing Start" is defined as a home on which ground has broken.

We shouldn't put too much faith in the findings, however. Although housing starts were lower last month, as noted by the Census Bureau, the margin of error in the August Housing Starts report exceeded the actual result.

From the official report:

• August's Published Results : -1.4% from July 
• August's Margin of Error : ±10.3% from July

Therefore, August's Housing Starts may have actually increased by up to +8.9% from July, or it may have dropped as much as -11.7%. We won't know for sure until several months from now, after the Census Bureau has gathered more housing data.

One thing is certain, though -- the long-term trend in Housing Starts is "flat". There has been little change in new home construction since last summer.

The same can't be said for Building Permits.

Considered a pre-cursor to Housing Starts, Single Family Building Permits climbed 2.5 percent with a minuscule Margin of Error of ±0.9 percent.

As is common in real estate, results varied by region:

• Northeast : +3.3 percent from July
• Midwest : +6.3 percent from July
• South : -1.3 percent from July
• West : +11.3 percent from July

When permits are issued, 86 percent of them begin break ground within 60 days. Therefore, expect Housing Starts and new home inventory to rebound in the months ahead.

For now, housing remains steady. And, with mortgage rates at all-time lows, homebuyer purchasing power in an around Kennesaw is higher than it's been in history. If you're in the process of shopping for a home, talk with your lender to plan your mortgage budget.

Housing Starts Tick Lower; Building Permits Tick Higher

Single-Family Housing Starts fell to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 425,000 units in July, according to the Census Bureau.

A "Housing Start" is defined as a home on which construction has started and ground has broken.

Furthermore, Single-Family Housing Starts were revised lower for both May and June of this year, by 6,000 units and 2,000 units, respectively.

The data may be worthless, however.

Like in most months, the government's official report states that the Housing Starts numbers have a margin of error exceeding their actual measurement. Mathematically, this renders the data statistically irrelevant.

• July Published Results : +4.9%
• July Margin of Error : ±8.9%

In other words, July Housing Starts made have increased by as much as 13.8%, or they may have dropped up to 4.0%. We won't know for certain until several months from now, when the Census Bureau gathers more data.

Regardless, the trend in Housing Starts has been flat since last summer. July's reading is in-line with the 12-month average and, not surprisingly, New Home Sales have been mostly flat over the same time span.

Also included in the Housing Starts report is the Building Permits tally. As compared to June, permits were higher by a half-percent nationwide, with varying results by region.

• Northeast : +2.9 percent from June
• Midwest : +0.0 percent from June
• South : -1.4 percent from June
• West : +4.9 percent from June

When permits are issued, 86 percent of them start construction within 60 days. This means that new home sales and housing stock should follow the Building Permits trend, but on a 2-month delay.

Expect improvement into the fall season.

GA Housing Starts Surge 9 Percent; Signal A Strong Fall Season

Georgia Builders are busy once again, but not like 2007
According to the Census Bureau, Single-Family Housing Starts rose to 453,000 on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis in June -- a 9 percent spike from the month prior and the highest reading in 3 seasons.
A "Housing Start" is defined as a home breaking ground on new construction.
June's reading is largest one-month jump since June 2009. The reading surprised Wall Street despite that the Homebuilder Confidence survey may have foreshadowed the results.
Monday, the National Association of Homebuilders reported that builders are more confident about the future of the new home sales market, and forecast a large increase in sales over the next 6 months.
For buyers of new construction, the news is mixed. Rising confidence may mean that builders in Kennesaw are less willing to negotiate on upgrades and/or price, but rising construction levels add inventory to an already fragile market.
Adding to the nation's home supply without a corresponding increase in buyer demand shifts negotiation leverage away from builders.
The Census Bureau also reported on Building Permits.
In June, permits for single-family homes rose by 1,000 units nationwide on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. This, too, bodes well for housing because 89 percent of homes with permits start construction within 60 days.
Momentum should carry forward into fall.
If you're buying new construction in Georgia , ask your real estate agent about local home supply, and how the market is trending. With mortgage rates low and the fall buying season approaching, you may find some of your best deals in the next few weeks.

Housing Starts Climb Unexpectedly In May

The housing market received a jolt of good news Thursday. The Commerce Department reports that Single-Family Housing Starts improved in May.

As compared to April, last month's Single-Family Housing Starts rose 4 percent to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized rate of 419,000 units, a figure slightly better than the 6-month average and the highest tally since January.

A "housing start" is defined as a home on which new construction has started.

In addition, Building Permits saw a boost in May, too, climbing nearly 9 percent overall. Building Permits are a gauge of future construction activity with 89 percent of permits leading to new construction within 60 days.

For several reasons, the May data surprised Wall Street analysts. 

First, more homes being built suggests a healthier housing market, yet, earlier this week, the June homebuilder confidence report posted its lowest reading since September 2010.

Second, new home sales are only slightly higher than their all-time lowest annualized readings. Sales volume remains low in Kennesaw and nationwide.

And, lastly, home prices have yet to recover in full. By adding additional inventory, builders may suppress price growth through the remaining portions of 2011.

For home buyers in Georgia , though, the Housing Starts data may be a signal that the market is turning. The data can be used to your advantage.

Home prices are a function of supply and demand and -- based on the Housing Starts data plus the number of newly-issued Building Permits -- home supply is likely to rise. Demand, on the other hand, despite low mortgage rates, may not. At least not in the short run.

As a buyer, you can use this information to your advantage. If you're looking to buy new construction, ask your real estate agent about the current new homes supply. There are bargains to be found and May's Housing Starts data should support low prices for at least the next few weeks.

New Home Sales Increase For The Second Straight Month

Sales of newly-built homes surprised Wall Street, jumping 7 percent to an seasonally-adjusted, annualized 323,000 units last month.

In addition, the supply of new homes dropped to 6.5 months — a 2-month decrease from October 2010 and the best reading in a year.

The report runs counter to recent reports from the National Association of Homebuilders and the National Association of REALTORS® which suggest a looming housing slowdown. April's New Home Sales report runs counter to that theory; it shows ongoing, steady, staggered improvement in terms of sales volume and sales inventory.

Broken-down by sales prices, the New Home Sales report also showed that homes are selling across all price tiers. The "luxury market" improved most:

• Up to $199,999 : +1,000 homes from March
• $200,000 to $399,999 : +2,000 homes from March
• $400,000 and over : +3,000 homes from March

These figures suggest that that move-up buyers -- not first-timers -- are driving the new home market. Homes under $200,000 now account for just 40% new home sales, down from 46% a year ago.

However, as with most months, it's important that we recognize the New Home Sales data's margin of error. Although New Home Sales showed a 7% improvement in April, the reported margin of error was ±17%. This means that the actual reading could have been as high as 24 percent, or as low as -10 percent. 

It's a huge range, and because it encompasses both positive and negative values, the Census Bureau assigned its April reading "zero confidence". It's right there in the footnotes.

For home buyers in Atlanta , rising sales and falling supply may mean higher home prices. And, combined with the issuance of fewer building permits, supplies may be constrained into the summer months. This, too, would pressure home prices higher.

Building Permits Fade Faster Than Expected

Single-family housing starts dropped by 21,000 units in April on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis.

The Housing Starts report measures the number of homes on which new construction "broke ground". It's tracked by the U.S. Department of Commerce which releases new data monthly.

Single-family housing starts fell 5 percent as compared to March 2011, and 30 percent as compared to April one year ago. 

The figures were worse than what Wall Street expected. For just the second time in 2 years, monthly single-family housing starts dropped below 400,000 units. In addition, single-family Building Permits fell in April as well, shedding 2 percent from March.

A building permit is a local government's approval to start home construction and when permits are down, new construction follows. This is because 93 percent of homes begin construction within 60 days of permit-issuance.

Fewer permits, as a consequence, means fewer new homes. Therefore, if you're looking at new construction in or around Kennesaw , April's numbers may spark a sense of urgency.

Home prices are a function of home supply and demand and, based on the Housing Starts data, supplies appear headed for a fall. Meanwhile, on the other side of the equation, demand should be rising -- foot traffic is higher, mortgage rates are lower, and job growth is picking up. 

This should lead new home prices higher in time. For now, though, home affordability remains high.

It's a good time to look at new home construction.

Building Permits Rise In All 4 Regions

According to the Census Bureau, seasonally-adjusted, single-family Housing Starts rebounded in March, increasing 8 percent over February's 2-year low.

We can't put too much faith in the data, however, because for the second straight month, the government reports that the data's margin of error -- 15 percent -- exceeds its actual measurement.

As written in the footnotes, there's no "statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change [in Housing Starts] is different from zero."

In other words, single-family Housing Starts may have dropped up to 7 percent last month, or may have increased by as much as 22 percent. We won't know for certain until several months from now. As the Census Bureau gathers more data, it will revise its initial monthly findings.

Such adjustments are common. February's starts were revised higher by 4.5%, for example.

Also included in the Census Bureau's report is the March 2011 Building Permits tally. As compared to February, permits were higher by 6 percent nationwide. This is a noteworthy development because permits-issued is an excellent forward-predictor for housing.

When permits are issued, 86 percent of them will start construction within 60 days. This means that new home sales and housing stock should follow the Building Permits report trend, but on a 2-month delay.

Permits were strong in all 4 regions last month:

• Northeast : +2.6 percent from February
• Midwest : +10.0 percent from February
• South : +5.3 percent from February
• West : +5.3 percent from February

With Building Permits rising, we can infer that the housing market is improving.

Therefore, if you're currently looking for new construction, consider that the market may be less favorable for buyers 4-6 months from now than it is today. Especially because homebuilders are already projecting higher sales volume.

The better time to buy new construction -- relative -- may be now.

Good News For Sellers -- Housing Starts Plummet In February

Single-family housing starts plunged unexpectedly last month. Nationwide, starts fell 12 percent from the month prior; and 29 percent from February of last year.

February's figures represents the worst 1-month drop in housing starts since May 2010 -- the month that followed the expiration of last year's federal home buyer tax credit -- and puts single-family housing starts at a 24-month low.

In addition, single-family Building Permits plunged last month, too, shedding 9 percent from January. A building permit is a local government's certification and approval to begin home construction.

Housing permits are an excellent forward-indicator for the housing market. This is because 93 percent of homes start construction within 60 days of permit-issuance. Fewer permits, therefore, directly reduces the number of new homes coming to market in the coming months.

For home buyers in Marietta looking at new construction or existing homes, this news should create a sense of urgency.

Home prices are based on supply and demand and overall home supply looks headed for a fall. Plus, with mortgage rates retreating and homebuilders projecting higher sales this summer, buyers may face rising home prices before long.

Sellers look poised to regain negotiation leverage.

For now, though, home affordability remains high with properties inexpensive and mortgage rates still low, historically. If you plan to buy a home in 2011, the February 2011 Housing Starts data may be reason to move up your time frame.

With home supplies dropping, prices are likely to rise.

Housing Starts Data Much Better Than The Headlines Would Have You Believe

Newspaper stories can be misleading sometimes -- especially with respect to real estate. We saw a terrific example of this Wednesday.

A "Housing Start" is a privately-owned home on which construction has started and, according to the Commerce Department's October 2010 data, Housing Starts data dropped by nearly 12 percent as compared to September.

The media jumped on the story, and its negative implications for the housing market overall.

A sampling of the headlines included:

• Housing Starts Plunge: Market's 'Pulse is Faint' (WSJ)
• Housing Starts Tumble (Reuters)
• Housing Starts Sink 11.7 Percent In October (NPR)

Although factually correct, the headlines are misleading. Yes, Housing Starts fell sharply in October, but if we strip out the volatile "5 or more units" portion of the data -- a grouping that includes apartment buildings and condominiums -- Housing Starts only fell 1 percent.

That's a big difference. Especially because most new construction buyers in Marietta and around the country don't purchase entire condo buildings. They buy single-family residences.

As an illustration, 84% of October's Housing Starts were single-family homes. The remaining starts were multi-units.

This is why the headlines don't tell the whole story. The market that matters most to buyers -- the single-family market -- gets completely glossed over. The Housing Starts reading wasn't nearly as awful as the papers would have you believe.  Furthermore, it's never mentioned that single-family Housing Permits climbed 1 percent last month, either.

According to the Census Bureau, 82% of homes start construction within 60 days of permit-issuance. Therefore, we can expect December's starts to be higher, too.

New Home Sales Unchanged In August; Market Stabilizing

Existing Home Sales rebounded last month after a lackluster July. New Home Sales data, by contrast, did not.

After an upward revision to July's data, New Home Sales remained unchanged at 288,000 units in August. It marks the second-lowest number of units sold in a month since 1963, the year government started its record-keeping.

At the current pace of sales, the newly-built home inventory would be depleted in 8.6 months.

The August New Home Sales was weaker-than-expected, but both Wall Street investors and Main Street economists are shrugging it off. The numbers were foreshadowed by weakening housing figures from earlier this summer.

For example:

1. Building Permits dropped between March and June
2. Housing Starts dropped between April and July
3. Homebuilder confidence continues to sag

Together, these three data points suggest that the market for new homes will be soft through at least this month.

With New Home Sales fading and colder months ahead, it may be an opportune time for home buyers in Marietta to look at new construction. Builders are eager to move inventory and the cost of materials remains low.

Buying "new" may never be cheaper -- especially with mortgage rates as low as they are. The 0.750 percent drop in rates since January has shaved $188 off of a $200,000 mortgage's monthly cost. That's $2,250 per year in savings.

As home supplies dwindle and mortgage rates rise, finding "great deals" in new construction will undoubtedly get tougher. Take advantage of today's market conditions, combined with builder pessimism. It may be the right combination at the right time to get that new home for cheap.

New Home Sales Drop In July -- Just Like Existing Home Sales

One day after the National Association of Realtors released the softest Existing Home Sales report since 1995, the U.S. Census Bureau released a similarly-weak New Home Sales report.

Americans bought just 276,000 newly-built homes in July. That marks the fewest units sold since the government started keeping records in 1963.

In addition, although new home inventory actually dropped 2,000 units in July, the slowing sales pace still managed to push the national supply higher by 1.1 months.  At July's rate of sales, the nation's new home inventory would be exhausted in just about 9 months.

None of this news should surprise you, though. It's all been foreshadowed for weeks.

First, Single-Family Housing Starts have dropped in every month since April.  A "housing start" is a when a home starts construction and, because fewer homes are under construction, we should expect fewer homes to be sold.

Second, Building Permits are down.  The number of new permits peaked in March and have fallen 23 percent since.

And, lastly, home builder confidence ranks at its lowest levels since early-2009. A contributing factor in that pessimism is dwindling buyer foot traffic.

Regardless, there's two sides to the story. Although the New Home Sales data looks bad for builders, it can be terrific  for you. This is because new homes are more likely to be discounted when the sales cycle favors buyers.

Coupled with ultra-low mortgage rates, the cost of buying a newly-built home in Marietta may have just become cheaper.